tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post1690633623641796429..comments2023-05-16T11:33:40.343-04:00Comments on Dialogues On Global Warming: Notes on Comments - ImportantTales From The Travelshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-80998476376752782542014-06-27T13:04:58.022-04:002014-06-27T13:04:58.022-04:00Mr Keating continues to say skeptics "deny cl...Mr Keating continues to say skeptics "deny climate change". We don't, as I have repeatedly and explicitly stated in earlier comments. But we do question the supposed - and unproven - magnitude of our influence.<br /><br />However, he has now reformulated his challenge. Alas, though, his knowledge of the scientific method and of the objectivity that it enjoins upon men of science seems lacking. He now requires us to "disprove" the IPCC's equilibrium climate-sensitivity interval delta-T(2x) on [1.5, 4.5] K, and to "disprove" its assertion that most of the global warming since 1950 was manmade. <br /><br />In the current state of climate science, it is not possible to "prove" or "disprove" any particular interval, which is why grown-ups approach the question probabilistically. It is very unlikely that Charney sensitivity is as high as 1.5 K, and near-impossible that it is as high as 4.5 K, Yet Mr Keating asks for absolute "proof" that has long been demonstrated to be unattainable, just as "proof" of IPCC’s sensitivity interval is also unattainable. Absolute proof is seldom available in the physical sciences.<br /><br />He should read Lorenz (1963), IPCC (2001, para. 14.2.2.2), Giorgi (2005), Lindzen and Choi (2011), Spencer & Braswell (2011), or Monckton of Brenchley (2008, 2010) to understand some of the complexities which render climate sensitivity inherently unconstrainable. <br /><br />Given that in the quarter-century since IPCC's first assessment report the world has warmed at half the rate then predicted on the basis of the [1.5, 4.5] K equilibrium-sensitivity interval, so far the outturn seems to favor the skeptical low-sensitivity position in the journals.<br /><br />Likewise, one cannot prove or disprove IPCC's assertion that most of the global warming since 1950 was manmade. True, only 0.5% of 11,944 papers published in the scientific literature between 1991 and 2011 expressly say that (Legates et al., 2013): however, even if feedbacks were net-negative the forcings from CO2 and other greenhouse gases would, all other things being equal, account for more than half of the 0.65 K global warming since 1950. <br /><br />So what? Elementary considerations would lead us to expect a further 0.8 K warming this century (of which none has occurred so far), all other things being equal, and that sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is ~1 K. Paleoclimate data confirm the extreme unlikelihood of climate sensitivities >>1 K: e.g., Jouzel et al. (2007) show surface temperature (corrected for polar amplification) as varying by only 1% either side of the long-run mean over the past 810,000 years. <br /><br />Paleoclimate reconstructions nearly all show the climate object is formidably thermostatic, consistent with feedback loop gains <0.1, implying sensitivity <1.3 K. The world may warm, but not by much. <br /><br />Mr Keating asks for evidence that the warming since 1950 was mostly natural. Pinker et al. (2005) found that a reduction in cloud cover caused 2.9 Watts per square meter of radiative forcing from 1983-2001. The reduction was chiefly natural, and probably associated with the then-positive PDO. <br /><br />Though CO2 concentrations continue to rise, probably through our emissions, cloud cover has recovered since 2001, suggesting that our influence on it is small. Contrast this largely natural 2.9 Watts per square meter of forcing in just 18 years with the 2.3 Watts per square meter of forcing attributable to Man from 1750-2011 (IPCC, 2013). There is a statable case that most of the warming since 1950 was natural.<br /><br />Given the chaoticity of the climate object, absolute proof is not attainable by any method (Lorenz, 1963). It would be more scientific if Mr Keating were to yell "Deniers!" rather less, and were to try to understand the probabilistic, rather than absolutist, tone of adult scientists in the climate debate.<br /><br />His "challenge" remains ill-formulated and unscientifically based. His continuing use of hate-speech terms such as “deniers” is childish.Monckton of Brenchleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12184527959982958316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-64558993187454440432014-06-27T12:29:48.337-04:002014-06-27T12:29:48.337-04:00Besides, that heat is included in the calculations...Besides, that heat is included in the calculations.Tales From The Travelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-62004438114915830852014-06-26T01:18:02.567-04:002014-06-26T01:18:02.567-04:00That's the second time you said that and it is...That's the second time you said that and it is the second time you were wrong.Tales From The Travelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-61413200186282935292014-06-26T01:17:29.787-04:002014-06-26T01:17:29.787-04:00And, your claim is what, exactly? What do thermal ...And, your claim is what, exactly? What do thermal vents have to do with global warming? The amount of energy coming out of those things is insignificant on a global scale. Tales From The Travelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-80781593805603804562014-06-26T01:16:24.162-04:002014-06-26T01:16:24.162-04:00????????Tales From The Travelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-68258572303993578652014-06-26T01:15:56.121-04:002014-06-26T01:15:56.121-04:00To date, every single comment has been posted. The...To date, every single comment has been posted. There have been a few that came pretty close to the family-friendly standard I insist on, but even those got posted. Funny how you make such an insulting accusation without bothering the get the facts, but that is what deniers do.Tales From The Travelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-63766916404985765042014-06-26T01:14:22.295-04:002014-06-26T01:14:22.295-04:00Of course, that is what you think.Of course, that is what you think.Tales From The Travelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12155749992445168195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-44323125283121565692014-06-25T12:22:52.501-04:002014-06-25T12:22:52.501-04:00"Global Warming" cannot be proven becaus..."Global Warming" cannot be proven because it is IMPOSSIBLE to know what the average surface temp of the entire planet is from day to day 1 million years ago, 10,000 years ago, 400 years ago, OR 5 YEARS AGO. Pete Nugenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05998515813146060540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-54918617323221182002014-06-25T12:19:01.029-04:002014-06-25T12:19:01.029-04:00None of the climate models account for heat transf...None of the climate models account for heat transfered to the ocean from the Earth's hot interior. Innumerable thermal vents are known to exist on the ocean floor and the ocean floor is known to be the thinest crust. <br />Please make my $1000 check payable to Vance McElmurry. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16073744267194577177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-60439676442268216692014-06-25T12:14:09.778-04:002014-06-25T12:14:09.778-04:00Global Warming cannot be proven because it is IMPO...Global Warming cannot be proven because it is IMPOSSIBLE to know what the average surface temp of the entire planet was 1 million years ago, or 10,000 years ago, or 700 years ago, OR 5 YEARS AGO!!Pete Nugenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05998515813146060540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-50529272211725177932014-06-25T12:09:37.152-04:002014-06-25T12:09:37.152-04:00Haha, only comments that you approve of get posted...Haha, only comments that you approve of get posted. Again, typical. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16073744267194577177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2581891759488770965.post-59419012296050941562014-06-25T12:06:34.396-04:002014-06-25T12:06:34.396-04:00I would think you are making it up so you don'...I would think you are making it up so you don't have to answer to your outlandish claim. Typical for global warming alarmists, no substance just Chicken Little clucking.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16073744267194577177noreply@blogger.com