Will Lethal Pollution Convince China to Limit CO2 Emissions?

China is the world's largest consumer of coal. Its economy is heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants to generate electricity. But, there are not enough power plants to satisfy demand, even with over 600 coal-fired power plants. The plan is build a new coal-fired power plant every week for the next four years. Since China has plans to build more than 360 new coal-fired power plants, this trend will certainly continue into the future. Then, throw in China's legendary traffic into the pollution mix. China has some of the worst traffic in the world and, in 2010, had a 60 mile-long traffic jam that lasted more than an astounding 10 days (for 12 days, in some accounts). What you get is a scary situation regarding greenhouse gas emissions.

But, global warming is not the only problem resulting from this campaign. The smog levels in China are legendary. Take a look at these images.




















These are just samples. A simple Internet search will bring up many more. Can you imagine living this way?

Last December, smog in Shanghai resulted in disruptions in the flight schedule at the international airport and forced schools to close. The U.S. considers air quality index levels over 300 to be 'hazardous.' The Shanghai government reported an index reading of 361, but the U.S. Consulate reported an index of over 500. It is estimated that air pollution cuts Chinese life expectancy by 5.5 years.Reports have even linked the air pollution to over one million premature deaths per year.

The situation has gotten so bad that Premier Li Keqiang said China would "declare war" on air pollution. Part of the program announced by Li is to lower energy consumption, reduce emissions, shut down 50,000 coal furnaces, minimize vehicle exhaust fumes and boost alternative energy sources. All of these measures would be very positive developments in the battle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

China has said this before, most recently in September of 2013.  So, twice in about six months. Does that mean Beijing is serious? Or, is this merely a ploy to make it sound as if the government will do something about such a massive problem?

The real question is, how much of a hit is the Chinese government willing to allow to economic growth? Making these cuts will be expensive, and no plan has surfaced of how the government will pay for it. And, it is likely to put a damper on economic growth. But, transparency is not in the vocabulary list of a communist government. They could very well have a plan to pay for everything and just not be telling anyone. Not only would that not be surprising, it would actually be pretty standard for the Chinese. And, if they feel the economy is sound, they may feel it could stand to take a hit and keep growing. Plus, some of the hit will be absorbed by the new industries that will arise as a result of the efforts.

But, there is speculation that this effort will actually increase the emission of greenhouse gases by China. The reason is that if China closes coal-fired power plants, or even just doesn't build as many new ones, where is it going to get its electricity from? The Chinese government is concerned with social turmoil, so it is not going to tell the populace to just do without. They are going to find alternative sources.

Some electricity may come from renewable sources, such as solar or wind power. However, these sources cannot provide the amount of electricity China needs.

What about nuclear energy? China currently has 20 operational nuclear power plants with another 28 under construction and more planned. China plans to increase the amount of electricity generated this way by a factor of three by 2020 and by a factor of more than seven by 2030. This would be a significant substitution for coal-fired plants. But, keep in mind these plans were in place when they planned those 360 coal-fired plants, so there is no assurance these nuclear plants will reduce coal consumption.

The fear is that China will replace coal with synthetic natural gas (SNG). SNG would reduce the amount of particulate pollution and reduce the amount of smog, which is good. Plus, the SNG plants could be located far from the population centers, again reducing pollution in the cities. But, it will also result in higher CO2 emissions due to the liquefaction process. In fact, China already has nine SNG plants producing over 3.5 billion cubic feet per day (It seems everything about China comes in these incredibly large numbers). These plants are responsible for 500 million tons of CO2 emissions per year above what would be emitted if the coal was just burned.

So, is this 'war on pollution' likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? I'm skeptical. I think we will see them produce much more SNG, which will reduce the smog level but will also lead to increased CO2 emissions. Not until it is economically feasible are they likely to capture the carbon in those plants and sequester it somewhere other than the atmosphere. But, we'll see.