Monday, August 11, 2014

Simplest Climate Model

$30,000 Challenge Submission – Simplest Climate Model
Formatted response with graphs can be found at

Marvin Szeto

$30,000 Challenge Submission – Simplest Climate Model
Formatted response with graphs can be found at
Scientific Method
1. Gather measurable data.
a. Global Temperatures from GISS
b. Download global temperature data from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) – one of the official global temperature records and data source for
c. GISS temperature data is expressed as anomaly from 1951-1980 global mean. “Best estimate for absolute global mean for 1951-1980 is 14.0 oC”
d. Using 0.01 oC as the smallest measurement, the annual uncertainty is ± 0.005 oC /year or ± 0.05 oC/decade.
2. Analyze data.
a. Warming occurred from 1917 to 1944
b. Cooling occurred from 1945 to 1963
c. Warming occurred from 1964 to 1998
d. Cooling occurred from 1999 to 2013
3 Develop theory to explain data.
a. Natural warming occurred during warming periods
b. Outside force caused cooling from 1945 to 1963
- IPCC said this was caused by aerosols.
“From about 1940 to 1970 the increasing industrialisation following World War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling, and
increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed warming after the mid-1970s.”
- Cooling by outside forces is not included in this model.
c. Natural warming started in 1964 and continues to present
d. Compare pre-1950 and post-1950 using same x = 0
e. Percentage of global temperature change pre-1950 to overall 1917-1998 period (using GISS data)
- (T(1944) - T(1917) *100)/(T(1998) - T(1917) ) = (0.13 - (-0.44) *100)/(0.61-(-0.44) ) = 54%
- The pre-1950 period contributed more to overall temperature rise than post-1950 period.
f. Much of the temperature change occurred within first 17 % of each period signifying a non-uniform temperature change.
- pre-1950 (4 of 28 years)
- (T(1921) - T(1917) *100)/(T(1944) - T(1917) ) = (-0.20 - (-0.44) *100)/(0.13-(-0.44) ) = 42%
- post-1950 (5 of 35 years)
- (T(1969) - T(1964)*100)/(T(1998)- T(1964) ) = (0.06 - (-0.20) *100)/(0.61-(-0.20) ) = 32%
4. Create model to simulate data.
a. Equation for pre-1950 temperature change [1917-1944]
y = 0.016x – 0.35 where x is measured from 1917
b. Equation for pre-1950 temperature change [1964-2013]
y = 0.016x – 0.12 where x is measured from 1964
c. Volcanoes eject aerosol particles into the atmosphere which cause short term cooling. Predicting volcanic activity and intensity is not part of this model.
d. El Nino cycles cause short term increased warming. Predicting El Nino cycles and intensity is not part of this model.
5. Compare model to actual data.
a. Pre-1950 temperatures were normalized to 1964 by adding difference in 1964 and 1917 temperatures (-0.44 – (-0.20) = 0.24).
b. First 13 years of both cycles are almost identical (1917-1930 vs 1964-1977).
c. After the first 13 years, differences can be explained by volcanoes (cooling) and El Nino (warming).
1929 - Volcano Komagatake
1933 - Volcanoes Kharimkotan, Suoh, and Kuchinoerabujima in 1933 and Volcan De Fuego, Cerro Azul in 1932.
197 3 - Strong El Nino
1976 - Volcano Mount Augustine in 1976 and Tolbachik in 1975
1983 - Strong El Nino
1985 - Volcano Nevado del Ruiz
1992 - V olcanoes Mount Pinatubo and Mount Hudson in 1991
1998 - Strong El Nino
- Year 12 (1929 & 1976) both had volcanoes
d. Simple Climate Model compared to actual temperatures through 2013
2002 - Moderate El Nino
2004 Weak El Nino
2008 Volcanoes Mount Okmok, Chaiten, and Kasatochi
2011 Volcanoes Eyjafjallajökull and Mount Merapi, in 2010 and Grímsvötn, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, and Nabro in 2011
e. The Simplest Climate Model shows there is no pause in global warming after 1998. The 1998 El Nino was a temporary warming that many people believe was caused by increased CO2. Using 1998 as a starting point shows a negative temperature trend caused by an abnormal data point.
g. El Nino data from


I am not sure how to respond to this simply because I am not sure what the submission is.  In light of what I think i understand here, I can only offer the response I gave to the submission "Falsified AGW".

To be clear, I think you are saying you can come up with a simple model, therefore, that somehow proves man made global warming is not real. In addition to the response I gave above, take a look at what I said about models.

If I have misinterpreted your submission let me know and I will respond again.

Until then, I can only say that you did not prove man made global warming is not real.

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