226 comments:
- Jason JonesJune 26, 2014 at 7:31 PMI'm excited for you to see my challenge, I wrote this piece last year actually, But before I submit my challenge, I will need to set up an analogy and have you answer three questions (yes or no) based on that analogy. You are responsible for the care of an Olympic-sized swimming pool. You install a state-of-the-art filtration system the size of a semi-truck that is specifically designed to filter raw sewage from a pool. Q1) Would you say that sized filtration system is plenty big enough to clean the pool given only regular use by regular people? Q2) If I'm dumping a tablespoon of raw sewage, once per day into the pool, which is actually much less than what regular use puts into the pool each day, would I be able to claim that I'm effectively going to destroy your pool? Q3) If I issued a $10,000 challenge, stating that you couldn't prove that my tablespoon of raw sewage will have no effect on the cleanliness of your pool, would you win that challenge? Once you answer these 3 questions, I'd be happy to submit my challenge to you! I look forward to your reply to my challenge.ReplyDelete
- Douglas ChuhranJune 26, 2014 at 8:35 PMI will disprove man-made global warming with the fewest words and easiest concept to understand: If glaciers, miles thick, we're to form now, would you blame humans? If those glaciers were to then melt, would you blame humans? If what minimal changes, relative to that forming and melting, are happening now, and are caused by humans, what did humans do to cause that forming and melting? To both the answer is NOTHING! It's the sun and its activity and lack thereof, over time, that causes our climate, changes and all.ReplyDelete
- The Young Turks (progressive news analysis) has added $20,010 of their own money to your challenge on the air. See their clip on YouTube:ReplyDelete
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0xwkrMQYlI (just over five minutes)
They leave judgement of whether your challenge is met to you, as they note they are neither climate scientists nor physicists. Perhaps you ought go on one of their shows.
They are satisfied that no person can meet the challenge that it is easy to disprove AGW as claimed by contrarians.
- If global warming exist. You and I would be dead. The human eyes can not function in heat and extreme pollution. Ultra Violet rays will burn the very skin off so painfully due to its high Beta Radiation levels. The hole in the Ozone can be made up. If the Hole was so bad You say it is. The penguins will be blind. Not by cataracts, but, the very retina will be burnt. The epidermis is to thin for UV rays. I am guaranteeing Billions of people will die If globle warming is real.ReplyDelete
- Daphne WallaceJune 26, 2014 at 10:11 PMGlobal warming is not man-made. Increasing Volcanic activity gives; a clue to the fact that Magma is rising closer to the earth's surface. This makes' more Methane gas readings. Climate change is from this also- the earth's crust is heating up; making the ocean warmer, the air warmer. Thus the weather heats' up around the globe.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousJune 26, 2014 at 10:24 PMGlobal Warming Challenge - submissionReplyDelete
I submit that it is not whether Global Warming exists or not, but whether it is actually a danger to humans, animals, and the planet. In addition whether the proposed solutions reduce or increase risk.
Let's start by stating some basic points that hopefully we can all agree upon:
1. Climatologists acknowledge that Earth has always gone through cycles of cooling and warming, proven in ice cores.
2. Climatologists agree that humans, livestock, cars, and industry emit Co2 gasses.
3. Climatologists agree that ice and trees both soak up Co2 gasses, functioning as a built in air cleaner. Therefore, more ice equals cooling and less ice equals heating.
4. The intensity level of the Solar cycle can either create a warming or cooling effect.
5. Volcanic eruptions release of sulfur dioxide has a cooling effect.
6. Increased population can have a warming effect and decreased population can have a cooling effect.
7. NASA has reported that we are currently in a reduced solar output cycle.
Now let's discuss some things that we may or may not agree upon:
1. NASA has stated that there is an ongoing 17 year pause in global warming. Not that some warming isn't still occurring but that it is at a greatly reduced rate. http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/17470-nasa-data-global-warming-still-on-pause-sea-ice-hit-record
2. Sea ice markedly increased this last winter. Therefore, more C02 was stored which equals cooling.
3. The Little Ice Age period of AD 1350- 1850 created increased cold and precipitation with a sea temperature decrease of 1 degree. This was brought on by reduced solar activity, increased volcanic activity, ocean circulation, and reduced the population by millions from famine and the black death.
So, my argument is that we currently have the climate cooling activities of reduced solar cycle activity, increased ice formation, and harsher winters which resulted in deaths of both humans (http://thinkprogress.org/health/2014/01/08/3132591/polar-vortex-deaths/ ) and livestock (http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/3729/20130829/snow-blanketing-south-america-kills-250-000-alpacas-5-people.htm) ( http://www.wunderground.com/news/south-dakota-cattle-deaths-update-winter-storm-atlas-left-more-dead-first-thought-20131018 ) as well as crop losses due to numerous polar vortex events. So, if we have entered into a reduced solar activity cycle like the Maunder Minimum; which caused massive animal, human and crop deaths - why are we not in a Little Ice Age? Sure everyone noticed this past winter the abnormally low temperatures and the impact on the livestock and crops. However, it was far from an ice age. I believe the Global Warming Advocates have the answer: it is due to increased human-caused emissions. The Co2 released by overpopulation, livestock, cars, and industry have kept the temperatures raised and subsequently reduced the severity of the impact of global cooling. Millions of people died worldwide during the Little Ice Age and the impacts were the greatest threat to countries and their people. It has been shown that the Industrial Revolutions output of soot contributed to end the Little Ice Age based on ice cores. http://www.nature.com/news/how-soot-killed-the-little-ice-age-1.13650 Perhaps Co2 emissions are the solution to preventing another Ice Age die-off event due to reduced solar activity and/or increased volcanic activity.
Therefore, I propose that under global cooling circumstances that sustained Co2 emissions would actually save human and animal life and that lowering emissions could intensify cooling and cause additional deaths. One must acknowledge that reducing Co2 emissions is not a blanket solution and is dependent upon whether we have a cooling or warming effect.
Thank you for your consideration of this submission.
Perri Jackson
- I only ask if CO2 derived climate change is real, why do the fields of Transport Phenomena and Thermodynamics refute these results? When going through the math, I have found that the CO2 would have to double in atmospheric content to produce the temperature changes that are claimed. That means around 800 ppm (0.0800%), and we are far from those numbers. I can also provide textbook examples to support this claim if needed.ReplyDelete
- Mr. Keating, my $10,000 counter challenge to you is still in effect. I will gladly write you a check for $10,000 if you can prove, as Al Gore presented in his film An Inconvenient Truth, that the ice core records from Vostok and elsewhere actually present a continuous record of past climate, and that at no time did any warm periods occur in which ice melted and obscured those records.ReplyDelete
- http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/23/Global-warming-Fabricated-by-NASA-and-NOAAReplyDelete
Why change the data if its really happening...?
- Here is a better example showing the data they altered with a few charts etc. http://www.naturalnews.com/045695_global_warming_fabricated_data_scientific_fraud.htmlReplyDelete
- My submission for a logical proof that global warming is NOT caused by human activity. Please note that I teach graduate level logical reasoning and analytical problem solving. My argument is based on a logical proof, which falls within the realm of the "scientific method". This will be done by using data collected by Mr. Keating himself, so there can be no question as to the soundness and validity of my argument. My argument has 3 basic steps:ReplyDelete
1) Measure global temperature changes starting from the date of your (Mr. Keating) choice (50 years ago, 100 years ago, 200, etc - your choice) to the present. Write down the rate of change of the temperature rise.
2) Measure the global output of carbon from 2 different ranges: start at any date you want go up to 1980. Then measure the carbon output from 1980 to the present. Write down the rate of change from those two different date-ranges.
3) Compare the rates of rising temperatures to the rates of increased carbon emissions. Whatever data you use, you will see that as the rates of carbon emissions go up, the rates of temperature rise goes down. Yes, temperatures are still rising, but at a much slower rate than carbon emissions.
In other words, as carbon emissions go up, temperature goes down. The data is crystal clear.
I have just proved that carbon emissions, if anything, actually lower global temperatures. Is this a bad thing? YES. Should we work to reduce carbon emissions? PERHAPS. But I still dis-proved man-made global warming. I fully expect the $10,000 prize, assuming that I'm the first to put this argument forward. I have already presented this argument to several law professors the University of North Carolina, who all agree that my argument is sound and that your offer is legally binding.
I look forward to hearing from you. I can be contacted via my website listed below.
- AnonymousJune 27, 2014 at 12:50 PMI think we need an impartial and unbiased judge for this contest! Dr. Keating, it is a fact that a judge of anything needs to be unbiased, ergo you have rigged this contest because you will never be convinced you are wrong. Sound familiar? Oh are you a "climate scientist?"ReplyDelete
I prefer the $10,000 in $100's and $50's please, as there is no doubt in my mind your check would bounce. cottereaux@yahoo.com
- http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ReplyDelete
Hopefully this is it, that money could save my life
- Tobias TookJune 27, 2014 at 1:07 PMPersonally, I'd like some evidence that, were the average temperature of the Earth to warm, that it would be a bad thing overall. History suggests otherwise.ReplyDelete
- AnonymousJune 27, 2014 at 5:24 PMDear Mr. Keating,ReplyDelete
I want to take this opportunity to pose a question to you. I'm not necessarily trying to disprove global warming but rather to see if it comes from another source. This is a sincere question, and I would really appreciate your response. From what I've seen and heard it seems that global warming interest and evidence has grown somewhat exponentially in recent years. Technology has also done the same. Which is what lead me to think ( I know, very scientific...). My question to you is: Is it possible that an increase in wireless technology (use of unseen waves via cell phones, satellite, internet, etc.) is creating more kinetic particle movement in the atmosphere, therefore generating heat? It probably sounds ludicrous to some, but waves need energy to move, and nothing is 100% efficient, so where does the lost energy go? In my mind, it makes sense that the energy is lost, or absorbed in the atmosphere one way or another eventually in the form of heat. Is this even possible? Has anyone researched this? Your opinion as a physicist is highly appreciated. Thank you.
- AnonymousJune 27, 2014 at 5:42 PMPage title: $30,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge IIReplyDelete
Dr. Keating: I am announcing the start of the $10,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge
I see the lies began with the first line on the webpage! Yes your attention to simple details speaks volumes on your execution of the scientific method. And you want to evaluate my submission?
- AnonymousJune 27, 2014 at 8:02 PMPart 1: Have to break this in more than one post.ReplyDelete
I am going to keep this as short and simple as possible so even a physicist will understand and not be able to poke holes in the FACTS. Everything stated supporting my claim to the $10,000 is factual.
Definition of The Scientific Method - a method of research in which a problem is identified, relevant data are gathered, a hypothesis is formulated from these data, and the hypothesis is empirically tested.
1. Problem identification: dispute claim that man-made global climate change is not occurring; for $10,000
2. Relevant data are gathered: I am accepted by the IPCC as a reviewer of IPCC drafts and submit my analysis of draft reports. I reviewed and analyzed hundreds of papers on global warming; examined data used; calculated margins of error; and assessed findings and conclusions.
3. A hypothesis is formulated from these data (point #2): the margin of error in climate papers is so high, sometimes 200%+, as to be totally unacceptable by any reasonable person and any respectable scientist. It is an indisputable fact that poor quality data sets (and inaccurate computer models) used in modelling projections out 20, 30, 40, 100 years or more, absolutely result in flawed findings and conclusions. The margin of error simply multiplies the further out to go. You simply need to examine the stated range of any projected climate model prediction to see the size of the error. The inability NOAA to accurately project the path of the largest natural localized weather event, a hurricane, out past 72 hours, clearly shows that is impossible to predict climate, which is the summation of weather over a period of time, on a regional to global basis, 20 to 100+ years into the future.
4. The hypothesis is empirically tested: see below
Fact: Neither the IPCC, NOAA, nor NASA, has established any uniform guidelines for: a minimum and maximum margin of error; a stated minimum size of data elements and sets; standard for accuracy of weather data used; accuracy of the measuring equipment. (using 4 examples to keep it simple). Research papers rarely state the margin of error but hide it with a huge range in projected results, under the guise of “confidence.”
cottereaux@yahoo.com
- AnonymousJune 27, 2014 at 10:02 PMI don't want to take sides or anything, but... This may not sound good but... The Earth has periods that it goes through, the Ice age and the Warming period.ReplyDelete
As you may know the Ice age, is basically where the Earth froze. The warming period, is where Earth basically warms up and removes the frost and permafrost from the Earth. Currently we are in the Warming period, which means we will be getting hotter and hotter to remove the ice, then after a period of time and will return to the ice age period. Another thing is that. We are inching closer to the Sun every day. Also... If you think global warming hurts everything... It is not completely true. This may be a bad example..., but if you look at bull sharks. They have made the ability to adapt to multiple places such as fresh water and salt water. They were originally salt water sharks, but then they adapted to have the ability to be able to live in fresh water. If you want more message me, and I can say a bunch more examples :).
Contact me at: k.richard132@outlook.com
- Christopher- I submitted my comment last night, but can not find it so I'll submit it again. The evidence I'd like to submit is that of Danish physicist, Dr. Henrik Svensmark. Specifically, I'd like to submit the documentary of his and his colleagues' work called, The Cloud Mystery, which you can view here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANMTPF1blpQ In addition, I'd like to submit his supporting study which you can read here: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL047036.pdf Please let me know if you have trouble accessing either one. Sincerely, Diane CassidyReplyDelete
- AnonymousJune 28, 2014 at 12:53 AMThe planet has been "cooling" for at least the past 17 years, or so. And your so-called "experts" have never "once" demonstrated, recorded, or proven human causation for "any" global warming --- but the anthropogenic ["man-made"] global warming religion has proven very profitable for those who own the religion and who drag around by the rings in their noses the useful idiots, airheads, and drooling, googley-eyed, bobble-headed sycophants who have an intense itch to be followers and part of "a cause bigger than themselves."ReplyDelete
Contemplate Gaseous Al Gore, the doomsday cult Chairman Of The Apocalypse, who sold his failed global warming alarmist TV station to Al Jazeera --- a propaganda arm of some oil dictatorship somewhere out there in Kaboomistan.
Now, isn't Al Gore building a huge new mansion in the tsunami / flood zone where it is sure to be inundated by the TOWERING WAVES of polar ice cap melt --- if his bullshirt theory of man-made global warming actually proves true to reality?
That lying fascist skunk must be laughing up his sleeve at all the idiots who have enriched him through his scam, his fraud --- man-made global warming.
So desperate now are the profiteers of his nutty religion that they are resorting once again to Hollyweird for scary big-screen movies and TV shows to carry their lunatic propaganda.
They turn scientific method on its head and demand that skeptics prove that "there is not" any man-made global warming --- but no one is obliged to prove any such thing, for the same reason that we are not obliged to prove that the moon "is not" made of green cheese.
OhBummer has hijacked my reference to the moon and the cheese in the past two weeks or so --- unless his speech was written by Biden The Magnificent --- that lobotomized serial plagiarist who serves as OhBummer's principal criminal accessory, after Eric The Red Holder.
The ecofreaks and enviromaniacs? Destroy them. Let's just focus on ensuring clean air and clean water.
- Dear Mr. Keating,ReplyDelete
I used to be very concerned about AGW. Recent errors in models and predictions caused me to reconsider.
Tell me, what good is a scientific consensus if they can't accurately predict the rate or the amount of global warming?
As an analogy, if 97% of stock brokers told you "this stock will go up in value, we just don't know how much or when" would you feel comfortable investing in it? Truly, one would not want to disagree with them in public but I think most of us would put our money elsewhere. So it is with policies related to global warming.
I will graciously accept your $10,000 now :)
- Mr KeatingReplyDelete
Thanks for your reply. I really appreciate your prompt and respectful reply. I have already written this in my reply, but I'm quite convinced that my argument is as basic as 1 + 1 = 2, so I am writing to address your Ocean Warming comments.
My argument accounts for all the warming you want to include in your data, including Ocean Warming. Because my argument is based in logic, I don't need to provide my own data - I can use the data from folks who disagree with my position. Once again, the data is clear: the last 30 years has seen a massive increase in the rate of carbon emissions while the warming rate has been stable. This clearly shows that carbon emissions either have no effect on warming or have a cooling effect. Check it yourself: when can I expect payment?
- The conclusion of your argument is that CO2 does not cause warming. The problem is that we've known for 150 years that CO2 absorbs infrared radiation, causing a greenhouse effect. John Tyndall discovered this and Svante Arrhenius built upon it. In fact, every single line of inquiry ever pursued has confirmed it. It's a fact more understood than gravity.ReplyDelete
So if you have a logical proof that concludes that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, then we are left with 2 options: 1) Either your proof is invalid, unsound, or some combination thereof. Or 2) Every single scientist who has ever studied CO2 from 1900 until the present is wrong.
Now, if you teach logic, I'm sure you're familiar with Occam's Razor: Which of those two options makes more assumptions?
Of course, we don't have to rely on succinctness and probability to conclude that your proof was wrong.
You never established what is an acceptable return rate of carbon increase to temperature increase. The temperature has undoubtedly increased over that last few decades. Were you expecting an exponential increase, a linear increase or what?
You also ignore that fact that the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since the 1970's, which would counter the effects of a greenhouse-induced temperature rise. Still, the temperature keeps rising. Should I even bring up the Milankovitch cycles, which suggest that the Earth should be cooling? Perhaps the Earth is not cooling as fast as you think it should, but it is still bucking what would otherwise be natural cooling trends. Hmmm, what could ever be the reason?
A valid argument, maybe...but an unsound one, certainly.
- This was published yesterday:ReplyDelete
New research published today (Friday 27th June 2014) in the journal Nature Scientific Reports has provided a major new theory on the cause of the ice age that covered large parts of the Northern Hemisphere 2.6 million years ago.
http://beforeitsnews.com/science-and-technology/2014/06/new-theory-on-cause-of-ice-age-2-6-million-years-ago-2704014.html
“Our findings suggest a significant link between ice sheet growth, the monsoon and the closing of the Panama Seaway, as North and South America drifted closer together. This provides us with a major new theory on the origins of the ice age, and ultimately our current climate system.”
Surprisingly, the researchers found there was a strengthening of the monsoon during global cooling, instead of the intense rainfall normally associated with warmer climates.
Dr Stevens added: “This led us to discover a previously unknown interaction between plate tectonic movements in the Americas and dramatic changes in global temperature. The intensified monsoons created a positive feedback cycle, promoting more global cooling, more sea ice and even stronger precipitation, culminating in the spread of huge glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere.”
- AnonymousJune 28, 2014 at 4:19 PMhere's a taker:ReplyDelete
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/who-is-steven-goddard/
- AnonymousJune 28, 2014 at 11:23 PMDr. Keating:ReplyDelete
Your June 28, 10:43 A.M. reply to my posting of June 28, 12.33 AM did not address anything that I had written. Does this mean that you were unable to refute any of my facts that all of the warming over the past several decades was due to the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere? If so, perhaps I should claim the prize!
Burl Henry - john byattJune 29, 2014 at 1:10 AMBurl you seem unfamiliar with the RF chart AR5ReplyDelete
http://www.realclimate.org/images/ipcc_rad_forc_ar5.jpg - AnonymousJune 29, 2014 at 1:52 AMYou want to use the scientific method as a form of proof. This already demonstrates you do not understand what the scientific method is, nor how it works. In mathematics we have theorem proving, but in science everything is a theory, and every theory is open to new evidence that comes to light. A general concept cannot be proven nor disproven by the scientific method.ReplyDelete
Allow me to demonstrate. Please prove, via the scientific method, that God did not create the Universe. Give it a try, and hopefully you will discover that it cannot be done. Science cannot be used to prove their either is or is not a God. Next week God himself may sit down next to you and say, "Ha! fooled you!", if not next week then maybe the week after, or after that. You cannot prove it will never happen. All you can say is so far it hasn't happened yet.
I can use the scientific method to disprove specific theories about global warming.
For example, back in 2000 a now famous article was titled "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past" where Dr David Viner, of the University of East Anglia, said that snowfall would be "a very rare and exciting event". The same article cited David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire with the claim that British children would have to make do with "virtual snow" because they would never see real snow.
Clearly these people made a prediction, and the prediction can be verified (a decade and a half later) as wrong. Their prediction was based on theory, the facts did not fit their theory and thus the specific theory must be wrong. Of course, you could now point to a different theory, and probably you will, but I can't prove all possible theories wrong even the ones that the AGW alarmists will come up with next year, and next decade and whenever a new idea jumps to mind.
Another specific example would be the IPCC prediction from 2007: “Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES scenarios. In some projections; arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century” (AR4 SPM p15 also in AR4 ch10).
We know this did not happen. Global sea ice is actually growing, and there's no evidence of the arctic being ice-free, nor even close. Again, a specific prediction can be disproven by the scientific method... but the IPCC just come up with more of them!
Finally I'll point out that "man-made global climate change" is not clearly defined. Do you mean, any change caused by humans, even the slightest amount? Do you mean measurable change that can unequivocally be attributed to humans? Do you mean that climate change is mostly caused by humans? What about local climate change such as UHI, or cutting down trees? Those are not global by any means, but they could well have some tiny effect on a global measurement (note that all so called "global" measurements are really just the average of a bunch of local measurements). Can we ignore any local effects and only look at genuinely global effects?
How can I disprove something unless you clearly define what you are talking about?
I'm not claiming the prize by the way, I don't seriously expect you will ever pay out, but at least you might take the trouble to fix up the question. - Dear Christopher Keating,ReplyDelete
Firstly, congratulations for your initiative. But there are some problems in your challenge:
1) Ultimately, one cannot prove anything in Science. One can, at the best, corroborate. Then you win in advance any challenge in which you request any scientific proof of something. For example: you could offer $ 1 billion to somebody proved that the theory of gravity is correct. And when a person submit a Newtonian solution, you could say it is inaccurate (if is inaccurate, is not a proof) and invoke the theory of relativity. If the person submit a relativistic "proof", you could disprove based on anomalies in the Pioneer 10 and 11, or based on the morphology of spiral galaxies (improper orbital velocity of stars in function of distance of the barycenter of galaxies), or based on inconsistency in the "G" measured along the years, whose amplitude variation is greater than would be expected based on the uncertainty of the experiments etc.
2) Climate changes happen all the time. You need to specify the range of the minimum change to be considered relevant, and subtract the effects of seasonality.
3) There are uncertainties in the measurements and no result can be fully trusted. Have a fiduciary limit (Fisher*) for any result. So the challenge should specify the minimum level of significance for rejection or acceptance of the null hypothesis.
I suggest you rephrase the statement of the challenge, so it can be considered as a true challenge. The way the rules are, you'll always be winning a priori, and not care if the challenge is global warming or the Third Law of Thermodynamics. Both cannot be "proven".
Beware the new statement, because depending on how you rephrase, it can be very easy to win, and anyone will take your money.
In my opinion, the thesis you wish to defend is that the empirical evidence shows that the probability of human activities interfering in the global climate in measurably and cumulative way is greater than the probability that there is no anthropogenic climate change. If it is your thesis, I think is a dangerous thesis, because the range of natural variations in climate throughout history is much greater than the changes observed in recent years.
I accept only the part that “empirical evidence shows that the probability that human activities are interfering in the planetary climate is greater than the probability that there is no anthropogenic climate change”. But no have, to my knowledge, sufficient evidence that the changes are cumulative long-term and much less that are measurable safely amid large spurious oscillations caused by noise or by natural events.
If a person throw a challenge contrary to yours, for example, and offer $ 30,000 to someone prove that exists a cumulative long-term climate change caused by human activity, you could not win the bet.
Cheers!
Hindemburg Melao Jr.
www.saturnov.com
www.sigmasociety.com
* I prefer the expression “fiduciary limit”, proposed by Ronald A. Fisher, instead the conventional “confidence interval”.
- Below the original version of this message (Portuguese). If have any difference between these versions, the correct is Portuguese version.ReplyDelete
Prezado Christopher Keating,
Em primeiro lugar, parabéns por sua iniciativa. Porém há alguns problemas em seu desafio:
1) Em Ăşltima instância, nĂŁo se pode provar nada em CiĂŞncia. Pode-se no máximo corroborar. EntĂŁo vocĂŞ venceria qualquer desafio no qual vocĂŞ pedisse qualquer prova cientĂfica de qualquer coisa. Por exemplo: vocĂŞ poderia oferecer $ 1.000.000.000 a quem provasse que a teoria da gravitação Ă© correta. Quando a pessoa apresentasse uma solução newtoniana, vocĂŞ poderia dizer que está inexata (se Ă© inexata, nĂŁo Ă© uma prova) e invocar a Teoria da Relatividade. Se a pessoa apresentasse uma “prova” relativĂstica, vocĂŞ poderia contestar com base em anomalias nas Pioneer 10 e 11, ou com base na morfologia de galáxias espirais (com velocidades inapropriadas das estrelas em função das distâncias aos baricentros das galáxias), ou com base na inconstância no valor de “G” medido ao longo dos anos, que apresenta amplitude de variação maior do que seria esperado com base nas incertezas dos experimentos etc.
2) Mudanças climáticas acontecem o tempo todo. VocĂŞ precisaria especificar o tamanho mĂnimo da mudança a ser considerado relevante, e subtrair efeitos de sazonalidades.
3) Há incertezas nas medidas e nenhum resultado pode ser totalmente confiável, havendo um limite fiduciário (Fisher*) para qualquer resultado apresentado. EntĂŁo o desafio deveria especificar qual o nĂvel de significação mĂnimo para rejeição ou aceitação da hipĂłtese nula.
Eu sugiro que vocĂŞ reformule o enunciado do desafio, para que possa ser considerado como um verdadeiro desafio. Da maneira como sĂŁo as regras, vocĂŞ sempre será ganhador a priori, e nĂŁo importaria se o desafio Ă© sobre aquecimento global ou sobre a Terceira Lei da Termodinâmica. Ambas nĂŁo podem ser “provadas”.
Cuidado com o novo enunciado, porque dependendo de como você reformular, pode ser muito fácil vencer e vão levar seu dinheiro.
Em minha opiniĂŁo, a tese que vocĂŞ defende Ă© de que as evidĂŞncias empĂricas mostram que a probabilidade de que as atividades humanas estĂŁo interferindo no clima global de forma cumulativa e mensurável Ă© maior do que a probabilidade de que nĂŁo haja mudança climática antropogĂŞnica. Se Ă© isso, eu acho uma tese perigosa, porque a amplitude de variações naturais no clima ao longo da histĂłria Ă© muito maior do que as variações observadas nos Ăşltimos anos.
Eu concordo apenas com a parte que “as evidĂŞncias empĂricas mostram que a probabilidade de que as atividades humanas estĂŁo interferindo no clima do planeta Ă© maior do que a probabilidade de que nĂŁo haja mudança climática antropogĂŞnica”. PorĂ©m nĂŁo há, que eu saiba, suficientes evidĂŞncias de que as mudanças sĂŁo cumulativas a longo prazo e muito menos de que sĂŁo mensuráveis com segurança, em meio a grandes oscilações provocadas por ruĂdos espĂşrios ou por eventos naturais.
Se alguém lançar um desafio contrário ao seu, por exemplo, e oferecer $ 30.000 para você provar que existe mudança climática cumulativa a longo prazo provocada por atividade humana, você não poderia ganhar a aposta.
Cheers!
Hindemburg Melao Jr.
www.saturnov.com
www.sigmasociety.com
* Prefiro o termo “limite fiduciário”, proposto por Ronald A. Fisher, ao termo habitual “intervalo de confiança”. - I’ll take up your challenge. But I don’t want your money, I want good science.ReplyDelete
It will be a three pronged approach: (1) changing climate is not evidence: evidence is found in the repetition of the claim – heat trapping CO2 does not repeat (at least to be special or measurable); (2) oddities in carbon climate science – it is not at all like other science; and (3) a refutation of the 1859 Tyndall experiment and the derived special GHG’s – it is the instrument that is special not he gases. All gases are.
1. For heat trapping CO2 to have any credibility it would have to stand as a similar law of science, that is be repetitive – like all the other laws of science. This is what makes science science.
If it weren’t for telescopes we’d (likely) still be in the geocentric paradigm as it is very difficult to prove without the aid of a telescope that we are not at the centre. The telescope reveals the repetition of a (Copernican) theory. Even with the telescope, Galileo had to prove extra the the world rotated and that a geocentric universe is an illusion. I argue that CO2 or for that matter manmade climate change is a similar illusion to geo-centricity.
If CO2 traps heat as it is said to do it should co-explain the likes of:
• plate tectonics, CO2 is there in both high concentrations and high temperatures – it doesn’t, water does;
• respiration, why our breath is warm, again water does, but CO2 is there at around 45,000 ppmv. No animal uses CO2 to warm its breath ;
• why meteorologists don’t measure CO2 to make predictions or explain cloud formation, and no one does, not pilots whose lives would depend on such knowledge – but they do measure and understand the physics of water;
• avalanche (continuing from the above) and general snow pack stability. It doesn’t figure in any literature I have. We measure all other variables that effect temperature change in the snow pack, but not CO2. Not even on volcanos – it sinks, it’s heavy, it must be there. Our lives would depend on this!
• utility: no one, nothing uses it for its said claim of trapping heat. I don’t buy CO2; there is not market for it. Wouldn’t it be used to trap heat in my house – as we do water? It should be in between our double glazed windows, and be part of the solution to the problem it is said to cause – as a heat trapper? No, it is not.
This was from my blog entry: http://www.fractalnomics.com/2013/03/5-fractal-record-of-heat-trapping-co2.html
2. Carbon climate science is odd, not at all like other areas of science.
• Where is the complexity – the deep physics? It’s all too simple! It is explained to school children in school books as it is to adults in adult university science books. It not hard to understand and this is odd. Science is hard! It gets harder. We can all read about quantum weirdness in popular science, but to study quantum mechanics in depth is extremely challenging – this goes for all science, but not CO2 climate change.
• Where are the experiments, the research, and the multibillion dollar budgets? The Kepler and Hubble telescope / LHC like experiments. All it has it computer models. That is not science.
• Where are the PhD’s on understanding the physics of CO2 – this extreme threat? If have found none! This is not like the stuff of viruses, asteroids or volcanos or any other areas of science. The PhD’s are going to studying future effects and engineering green tech. They are parasitic on other areas of knowledge, and this is fallacy.
• Where are the typical science statements from scientists at the top of their field: ‘We still have much to learn’; ‘we don’t yet have a full understanding....’;’.. the more we dig, the more questions we discover..’?
• Carbon climate scientist’s claim to know – to have consensus – and this is odd. Other sciences never say such things, and if they do, it is not for long. - This particular climate change that is going on in the world right now is not man made. It is a 12,000-12,500 year glaciation cycle that occurs because of the Earth's axial tilt changing and the mass of the ice caps swapping. I can best illustrate my proof with this video which is more like a PDF but it is in Youtube format.ReplyDelete
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4izkPDASG7U
- 3. The 1859 John Tyndall experiment is flawed. It is 18th Century electric trickery, and has lead us to believe in (possibly) the most nonsense scientific premise in the history of science: that only the ‘GHGs’ (2% of gases in the atmosphere) trap heat, and that the remaining N2 and O2 (98%) are not GHG’s because they don’t. Infrared (IR) – sensed by us as heat – thermopile detectors (the same used in the Tyndall experiment deriving the GHG’s) are easily and cheaply available today and are used in noncontact infrared thermometers, thermal imaging cameras and importantly IR spectroscopy. They are all related through electric thermopile. Application of these thermopile IR detector instruments (their operation manuals) reveals they don’t measure temperature of all substances or see all substances – N2 and O2 are such substances, germanium is another. These substances are transparent to the instruments (in the IR frequency range). It is the instrument that is special and not the gases. It is all to do with the atomic vibration: N2 and O2 have only symmetric vibrations and so are IR inactive, and so transparent, but they are not Raman inactive (Raman Spectroscopy is a complimentary instrument to IR spectroscopy). IR thermometers are said to be no substitute for traditional thermometers and must be used with caution especially with these special substances. Imagine a sauna made with walls of (IR transparent) germanium, and heated to sauna temperature. To a regular traditional thermometer it would register hot; to a noncontact IR thermometer it would read not the inside temperature of the sauna, but the same temperature as the outside of the sauna. It would ‘see’ right through walls (apart of course for the water vapor and other trace gases). It would be useless. N2 and O2 are stealth gases: they are to IR thermopile thermometer instruments as stealth bombers are to radar. This was from my blog entry: http://www.fractalnomics.com/2013/12/the-gassy-messenger-magic-of-ir.htmlReplyDelete
CO2 has no heat trapping specialty (it does trap heat, only as much as it’s specific heat capacity allows; its science appears no more than an agenda; and the science is all based on a false premise, one that can be refuted by simple application of a 30US$ noncontact IR thermometer. - THE EARTH IS DYING FROM SECOND HAND SMOKEReplyDelete
By Art Greenfield
Now the truth is coming out. The greenhouse gasses that are causing global warming are coming from the billions of tons of tobacco that are burned every year, and from dozens of massive forest fires caused by careless smokers. Below is a list of dangerous gasses released into the atmosphere from smoking. Smoking causes SMOKE. It is not a harmless vapor..Cigarette smoke contains over 7000 chemicals, and 70 of these are known to cause cancer.
See: http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/sgr/2010/consumer_booklet/chemicals_smoke/
List of greenhouse AND POISON gasses released into the air by smoking:
CARBON DIOXIDE - THE MAJOR GREENHOUSE GAS
CARBON MONOXIDE - POISON GAS
AMMONIA - POISON GAS THAT ENHANCES NICOTENE POTENCY AND ABSOPTION IN BODY
ACETONE - POISON GAS
TOLUENE - POISON GAS
HYDROGEN CYANIDE - GAS CHAMBER POISON
BERNZENE - POISON GAS
NAPTHALENE - POISON GAS
BUTANE - POISON GAS
METHROPENE - FLEA POWDER POISON
NICOTENE - RAT AND INSECT POISON
UREA - WASTE PRODUCT COMPONENT OF URINE
AMMONIUM PHOSPHATE - POISON HERBICIDE
ADDITIONALLY MILLIONS OF TONS OF GASOLINE, TREES, COAL FOR POWER PLANTS, AND DIESEL FUEL ARE BURNED IN THE PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION, OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS, AND TRAVELING BY THE PUBLIC TO PURCHASE TOBACCO PRODUCTS.
I found an Australian website that was not afraid of any backlash from Big Tobacco that showed the truth.
http://www.oxygen.org.au/hardfacts/tobacco-and-the-environment
The damage just in Australia is horrendous:
Pollution is not the only way cigarettes damage the environment.
Approximately 5 million hectares (600 million trees) of forest are destroyed each year to provide trees to dry tobacco. This is the same size of 3.6 million Aussie Rules Football fields.
Over 32 billion cigarettes are smoked in Australia each year. If the butts from these cigarettes were placed end to end, they would circle the planet 16 times.
Litter caused by cigarette butts is a significant problem in Australia. Nearly 7 billion cigarette butts are not disposed of properly in Australia each year.
Nearly 7% of bushfires, which are responsible for 14 deaths each year, are caused by carelessly discarded burning cigarette butts.
When it rains, cigarette butts lying in our streets and gutters are washed in to our harbours, beaches and rivers. The chemicals in these butts and the butts themselves impact on our water quality and can be deadly to our marine life (Clean up Australia).
Cigarette butts can take up to 12 months to break down in fresh water and up to five years to break down in sea water (Clean up Australia).
Cigarette butts have been found in the stomachs of young birds, sea turtles and other marine creatures (Clean up Australia).
Tobacco and the environment
When people smoke they not only damage their own
health, they also damage the environment.
- Humans are directly responsible for global warming by trapping beavers and destroying beaverdams. Beaverdams (and wetlands) are directly responsible for the earth's cooling due to evaporation; great lakes are Ontario with lots of water= lots of rain, high levels of humidity help create thunderstorms. Africa= no significant lakes, therefore no evaporation and less rain. If Beavers exists in Africa they would dam up every river and tributary until parts of the great plains are wet, water would evaporate to make more rains in a never ending cycle.ReplyDelete
In conclusion, men killing beavers is the cause of global warming.
- AnonymousJune 29, 2014 at 9:01 PMSave the planet, Eat a beaver!ReplyDelete
Norbert, too many Brazilian bikini wax jobs going on daily so the beavers are becoming extinct. - James PadgettJune 29, 2014 at 10:37 PMI propose the following:ReplyDelete
1. Increased carbon dioxide levels reduce transpiration
2. Reduced transpiration means less atmospheric water vapor
3. Less water vapor means a smaller greenhouse effect
Now can you prove that this effect is smaller than the logarithmic warming carbon dioxide would cause by itself? If you can't then I've provided sufficient doubt that carbon dioxide will warm the planet (i.e. carbon dioxide having a net warming effect is thus not proved and should be considered false until such evidence comes in).
Thank you, the money will go towards a very good cause. - 4096 characters limit?!ReplyDelete
What is this, a Joke?
You have to play games Christopher?
I so own you, you little cheat.
- My view is that sea levels rise because of earth changes.ReplyDelete
Underwater Volcanoes erupt very often under the deep sea.
Around 5-10% of the sea bed/floor is mapped.
These volcanoes erupt spewing lava into our oceans and seas, the lava solidifies and becomes a solid rock.
This heavy rock cause a change in sea levels which affects all sea levels on earth.
*Another way of thinking of this *
Half a pint of water = Sea
Drop a golf ball into the pint glass of water. What happens?
The water level rises.
The golf ball acts as the underwater volcanoes eruption which produces solidified rock which cause the water levels to rise.
That is my theory.
Thank you,
Regards,
Ronan.
- Global warming is based on ice core samples that are 700,000 years old, but the Earth is billions of years old.ReplyDelete
Taken into account lets just say the last 100 millions years, the Earth is in a cold spell. There is no doubt that we are putting gases into the air that have an impact of the atmosphere, but how much of an effect?
Maybe the answer is as simple as the Earth is returning to it equilibrium temperature.
- Most of the widespread devotion to man-made global warming boils down to one fact - and only one fact; the preposterous notion that 97% of Earth’s scientists have determined that man plays a major role in our planet’s climate. If you take the claim of consensus away then you’re left with almost nothing.ReplyDelete
So here’s the $30,000 question for every man-made global warming advocate. What is the name of the study that surveyed all climate scientists? Who commissioned it? When was it done? And if the study didn’t actually question every scientist in the world, exactly how many scientists did it question?
Note that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not represent all scientists – or anything remotely close to all scientists. The United Nation’s IPCC consists of roughly 2,600 volunteers who have offered to seek out and publish reports that corroborate the United Nation’s politicians’ belief in man-made global warming.
Secondly, the United States National Academy of Science only consists of 2,300 experts coming from widely divergent backgrounds in medicine, engineering and science. Very, very few members of the United States National Academy of Science are climate scientists.
NASA’s website backs up its man-made global warming claim with a list of 18 organizations (most of which aren’t comprised of climate scientists) such as the American Medical Association and the American Chemical Society, along with the aforementioned United States Academy of Science. The NASA website also has the audacity to include the American Physical Society on its list despite the fact that in 2008 the American Physical Society publicly recanted its prior “unquestionable” support for man-made climate change. Furthermore the NASA website also identifies the American Meteorological Society on its list of supporters despite the fact that the organization now states they have nothing close to a 99% consensus among their members.
So here are the numbers you really need to know. There is NO study of ALL scientists or anything like it – and there never has been. Despite the fact that you hear about this fictitious survey over and over and over, it doesn’t exist. It’s a propaganda myth designed to induce mass hypnosis (quite successfully I might add). Nobody can cite the name of a large scale study that has surveyed all scientists.
As for actual surveys that have involved a large number of scientists, the percentage of respondents who believe that the man-made global warming consensus is settled is much closer to 50/50.
- AnonymousJune 30, 2014 at 9:12 PMPart 1: ATSReplyDelete
It has been theorized that the use of anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide is the reason for the recently observed warming trend from ca. 1960-1998.
The present level of CO2 in the troposphere is stated by multiple sources as being on the order of 380 ppmv[1] or 0.038% of the atmosphere. This represents an increase, based on the most liberal estimates I have uncovered for pre-industrial levels of 280 ppmv[2], of 100 ppmv or 0.01%. Since this base point is considered to be 'safe and natural', it would logically follow that any warming would have to be associated with the 0.01% increase and it alone.
All heat energy reaching the earth is from the sun, in the form of solar irradiance. Heat reflected back into space is a result of this solar irradiance, and can therefore be considered the same in energy calculations. Solar irradiance can and has been quantified. The amount of energy reaching the planet is on the order of 1366 W/m²[3]. The planet presents a more or less circular profile to the sun, so the area of the earth normal to solar irradiance can be calculated as this circle. The earth is an average of 6371 km[4], with a troposhere layer surrounding it that averages 17km in height[5], which also must be included since it is the location of the atmospheric carbon dioxide.
That means a circular area of: r = 6371 + 17 = 6388 km
A = Ď€ r² = Ď€ (6388)² = 128,197,539 km²
We can now calculate the amount of energy which is thus intercepted by the earth (including the troposphere):
1366 W/m² = 1,366,000,000 W/km²
1,366,000,000 W/km² • 128,197,539 km² = 175,117,838,274,000,000 W (equivalent to J/s)
175,117,838,274,000,000 J/s = 175,117,838,274,000 kJ/s
That result in in Joules (or kiloJoules) per second. Since most climate predictions are based on much longer time intervals, I will now calculate how much energy would be available during such a longer time interval such as the commonly used 100-yr. period:
100 yr = 36,525 days = 876,600 hr. = 52,596,000 minutes = 3,155,760,000 s
We can now multiply this time interval by the rate of energy influx to obtain the total energy that the planet will recieve from solar irradiation over the next 100 years:
175,117,838,274,000 kJ/s • 3,155,760,000 s/100yr =
552,629,869,311,558,240,000,000 kJ/100yr
Now we must calculate exactly how much of that energy will be affected by the increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the troposphere. Remembering that the increase from pre-industrial levels is 0.01% of total atmospheric volume, we multiple this total energy by 0.0001:
552,629,869,311,558,240,000,000 kJ/100yr • 0.0001 =
55,262,986,931,155,824,000 kJ/100yr intercepted by anthropogenic CO2 - AnonymousJune 30, 2014 at 9:14 PMPart 2: ATSReplyDelete
Now let us turn to the question of how much energy is needed to increase global temperatures. Of course, the first and most obvious area to be heated is the troposphere itself. Air under average atmospheric conditions has a specific heat capacity of 1.012 J/g•°K[6] and an average density of 1.2 kg/m³[7]. The troposphere itself can be calculated by using the information presented earlier (average radius of earth = 6371 km[4] and a troposhere extending 17 km above the surface[5]). Thus the area of the troposphere can be determined by calculating the volume of a sphere of 6388 km radius and subtracting a sphere of 6371 km radius from it:
V(tot) = 4/3 Ď€ r³ = 4/3 Ď€ • 6388³ = 1,091,901,171 km³
V(earth) = 4/3 Ď€ r³ = 4/3 Ď€ • 6371³ = 1,083,206,917 km³
V = V(tot) - V(earth) = 1,091,901,171 km³ - 1,083,206,917 km³
= 8,694,154 km³
Now we can calculate how much energy it would require to raise the temperature of the troposphere by a single degree Kelvin:
1.012 J/g•°K = 1.012 kJ/kg•°K
1.012 kJ/kg•°K • 1.2 kg/m³ = 1.2144 kJ/m³•°K
1.2144 kJ/m³•°K = 1,214,400,000 kJ/km³•°K
Since our calculations are based on a single degree Kelvin temperature rise, we can write this as
1,214,400,000 kJ/km³
1,214,400,000 kJ/km³ • 8,694,154 km³ = 10,558,180,617,600,000 kJ
But to be accurate, the troposphere is not the only thing warming up. It has been often claimed (correctly) that the oceans are a major heat sink. So let us now calculate the amount of energy required to raise the ocean temperature by a single degree Kelvin. The volume of water on the surface of the Earth is an estimation, but several estimations are available and all of them are close.
Therefore, in the interests of conservatism, I am using the smaller of the estimated values: 1,347,000,000 km³[8]. The specific heat capacity of water by volume is 4.186 J/cm³•°K[6] at 25°C. Thus, in order to raise the temperature of the oceans by a single degree Kelvin:
4.186 J/cm³•°K = 4,186,000,000,000 kJ/km³•°K
4,186,000,000,000 kJ/km³•°K • 1,347,000,000 km³
= 5,638,542,000,000,000,000,000 kJ/°K
As before, since we are considering a single degree Kelvin temperature rise, this is equal to
5,638,542,000,000,000,000,000 kJ
We now add the values for the troposphere and the oceans together to obtain the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of these two areas combined by a single degree Kelvin:
5,638,542,000,000,000,000,000 kJ + 10,558,180,617,600,000 kJ
= 5,638,532,558,180,617,600,000 kJ
Now, remember from earlier calculations the total amount of energy that is available from the solar irradiance that can intercept anthropogenic carbon dioxide:
55,262,986,931,155,824,000 kJ - AnonymousJune 30, 2014 at 9:15 PMPart 3 ATSReplyDelete
So if we know the energy required to raise a single degree, and we know how much energy can be intercepted by the anthropogenic carbon dioxide, we can calculate how many degrees of temperature rise could possibly happen. Remember, please, that we are making the following assumptions in these calculations:
We only include the energy required to raise the temperatures of the troposphere (where the carbon dioxide is) and the oceans (climatic heat sink). No energy calculations are included to this point for land masses or for upper atmospheric levels, each of which would, in reality, contribute in some way to the amount of energy required.
We are assuming that 100% of the available solar irradiance is being absorbed by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. This includes shortwave solar irradiation which is actually reflected back into space without being absorbed, and it also includes radiation that is absorbed through other means such as photosynthesis.
We are assuming 100% conversion of that intercepted energy by anthropogenic carbon dioxide into heat, and not calculating how much of that heat is dissipated back into space through emission.
All of the above are extremely conservative assumptions. Inclusion of them will only decrease the expected temperature increases due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
Now, the actual calculation we have been waiting for:
Energy(required) / Energy(available) = Ratio
5,638,552,558,180,617,600,000 kJ / 55,262,986,931,155,824,000 kJ = 102.03
It would require 102 times as much energy as is available now to raise the temperature 1°K in 100 years.
In other words, if ALL of the solar irradiance that the anthropogenic CO2 could intercept were converted into heat, and if it took no energy to warm the land masses and the upper atmosphere, the temperature of the planet would only warm by about 0.01°K in 100 years.
Ignorance denied.
- AnonymousJune 30, 2014 at 9:26 PMYo there Doc Keating! what were you saying again about trusting NOAA to provide accurate information?ReplyDelete
NOAA Reinstates July 1936 As The Hottest Month On Record
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, criticized for manipulating temperature records to create a warming trend, has now been caught warming the past and cooling the present.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/30/noaa-quietly-reinstates-july-1936-as-the-hottest-month-on-record/#ixzz36AwADvXj
“Two years ago during the scorching summer of 2012, July 1936 lost its place on the leaderboard and July 2012 became the hottest month on record in the United States,” Watts wrote. “Now, as if by magic, and according to NOAA’s own data, July 1936 is now the hottest month on record again. The past, present, and future all seems to be ‘adjustable’ in NOAA’s world.”
P. 2
“These show that the US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record; whereas the latest graph, nearly half of it based on ‘fabricated’ data, shows it to have been warming at a rate equivalent to more than 3 degrees centigrade per century,” Booker adds.
WOW! Go figure! - Dennis CainJune 30, 2014 at 9:53 PMI'm sure you will have an excuse but at this page...ReplyDelete
http://geology.utah.gov/surveynotes/gladasked/gladice_ages.htm
show the past ice ages. A simple Internet search shows that man has been on the planet for about 200,000 years.
If climate change is man made, who/what caused the changes during the previous 2.4 billion years? It is intuitively obvious to the most casual observer that we are not the cause. - I believe the recent 10 year warming of the earth by approximately 0.5 degrees celcius is being caused by the 2004 Banda Aceh earthquake. It is known the earthquake of 9.3 magnitude shifted the earth on its axis. As you can see from your warming map, the Artic is warmer which means the North Pole was shifted in a more direct angle to the Sun. In comparison, the Antarctic is cooling approximately 0.25 degrees celcius, indicating the South Pole is shifted away from the sun. As you have shown, approximately the last ten years have been the warmest on record, corresponding to the 2004 earthquakeReplyDelete
- AnonymousJune 30, 2014 at 11:32 PMFirst off, when studying statistics you are taught (for those who never took a philosophy course called "Logic") you can never prove a negative. So, I could not PROVE there is no Easter bunny, or Santa Clause, all i can do is prove no evidence proving his existence exists. As Dave pointed out NO ONE doubts climate change. Climate change is a constant in both long and short term. What has not been proven is that man made CO2 has had any kind of significant effect on changing global temperature in either way cooling or heating. No model has been presented that cans how global warming is man made, those models have been shown to be inaccurate, and at the same time the source documents that would be used to replicate the model by independent sources can nor will not be produced.ReplyDelete
- I live in argentina and can see in a paleonthological reservoir in neuquen thats its almost desert, grand cannyon like, but the fossils are shells from ocean being there millions of years ago, this means that there were things like pangea, and also pole shifts all along in the earth's history, like many scientist have said that nile river thousands of years ago made egypt not a desertic place but a very human habitable place. This shows us that every thousands of years or millions of years the are natural changes. Many scientist saying mars used to have water because of the structure of some "paths" where water used to flow, so this shows as well how the universe it self is constantly changing and in movement. Humans have been very destructive yes. but so have volcanos, earthquakes, the shift from pangea to our current continental layer positions, the pole shifts, and who knows what else we can add talking about astrophysics and how dark matter, gravity, and plasma, etc.ReplyDelete
We are just starting to understand genes, atoms, molecules and more in this past less than 100 years. We still live by by a romanic system, with a senate and constitution based on carta magna for law, we have nanotechnology in japan and other countries while still people starving in africa the educational distance there is between some races and others (and this has happened through all history cruzades, inquisition, monarquies, da'vinci, isaak newton, etc) there has always been a great gap within humanity's knowledge. So what ever scientist are saying about global warming is just a preasumption because they really do not have any evidence that there has not always in all EARTH'S history natural climate changes. - The challenge is bogus. The pertinent rule...ReplyDelete
"prove, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change is not occurring"
is nebulous to the point of silliness, and can never be proven as long as man is part of the "environment".
Outside the rules, Keating says, "The scientific evidence for global warming is overwhelming and no one can prove otherwise," but that's an entirely different proposition than the challenge posted in the rules.
Anyone taking up said challenge thrown down on such imprecise parameters is wasting his time. The whole thing is built on false premises. The climate always changes. The changing climate is always a result of sundry inputs, including human related inputs.
Most skeptics don't dispute that climate changes, and don't contend that human activity is completely irrelevant to the process. The serious questions are whether or not the planet is on a path to catastophic warming, and whether or not human activity is a factor in it. If Keating can't even put his money behind an honest challenge, what use is he?
- AnonymousJuly 1, 2014 at 1:09 AM5000 years ago , Elephants lived in China's Beijing area, the weather was warm than today, china's Ancient books record many things like this , i think the global warming is just a Joke !!!!!!!!!!, it's just a cycle !!!,warm then cold , and then warm ....; you shoud to read some Chinese ancient books .ReplyDelete
- AnonymousJuly 1, 2014 at 2:21 AMToday, Chinese only in southern Yunnan have a little elephant distribution. In fact, in ancient times, the distribution range of elephants in the China is extremely wide. Neolithic Age in the the Yellow River basin has frequently appeared in elephant, Yu the great battle like legend, not without foundation. Hebei Yangyuan County found that the Asian elephant's teeth and bones left, the era is about at the end of Xia Dynasty (about 3000 ~ 4000), which is now known as the North Asia World Records distribution, about latitude 40 ° 11 ', and Beijing in the same latitude. From 8000 to 2500, human productivity is very low, the impact on the natural environment is weak, the annual average temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is now up to 2 ~ 3 ℃, the average temperature in winter of the coldest month is now high more than 5 ℃, a large part of North China area is subtropical climate, lush vegetation and around the lakes provide very favorable conditions for elephants living. Henan Yin Ruins in Anyang was found to have some like bones. The famous "24 filial piety" in such a few words "Shungeng in Lishan mountain. Some like to plow. A bird was weeding." Lishan in Ji Yin Chengyang, Shandong is today, and Dongming. Of course, the so-called elephant tillage and not today this cattle farming the same land, but land and elk, wild animal came to spring marsh wetland foraging, they put on tooth pulp, turned upside down, and then the ancients in these trodden place seeds. The wild elephants in the lower reaches of the Yellow River distribution, in the Shang Dynasty oracle bones in the book, there are many about like records, such as the Shang king once in Qinyang near Taihang Mountain on the south side of a bag of 7 Wild elephants. At that time, not only as the clan, but also domesticated elephants, sometimes fight out like army, "Lu spring and Autumn" set: "the merchant service, running from east." Not only is one of as livestock, and at the same time, ivory raw materials for handicraft industry is very developed, there are used in instruments, like dance in the dance, the Shang and Zhou dynasties as well as hairpin, like, like, like, like Gu Hu, ring, like comb with ivory ornaments. Like distribution is also reflected in the names, called "Henan" to "pictographic character, is a guy like, a symbol of harmony between man and nature, peace. Not only that, as a sacrificial way. Or the tomb area, Yin Ruins was found like a pit, a pit buried in pigs, also found a burial pit like. Visible, in ancient times the elephant and the Central Plains people our relationship is very close. However, with the progress of production, human activities continue to increase, enlargement of the natural development of the habitat of ancient the Yellow River, downstream of the elephant is bounded on the north by also continue southward, to the business end of the week mainly in southern Shandong, the spring and Autumn period (about 2500) began to cool the climate of the the Yellow River River Basin, the wild elephants have been moved to Huaihe river north and south. Therefore, in the Warring States period, the lower reaches of the Yellow River wild elephant is very rare.ReplyDelete
From 500 BC to 1050 this period, the northern boundary of the elephant activity in Qinling Mountains and Huaihe to the south of the line of the Yangtze River basin. Although at the time the elephant occasionally moved to the north of Huaihe, but has been unable to live through the winter, and one to Huaibei, the local people to kill. In the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in Sichuan Basin, the elephant before Jin Dynasty still living in the north, but after the Tang Dynasty is mainly limited to the Sichuan East Chongqing to Qijiang in the vicinity of the Jiangnan area. In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River i - I wrote a lovely argument that now I can't find. Did you receive it Dr Keating?