RE: Fact checking the May first, 2018, “other view,” titled “necessity
or defense? That’s laughable.”
Good morning Chuck,
Today’s May 1st, 2018 opinion page in the Duluth News
Tribune contains some grossly false information concerning Co2 and man’s role
in climate change. So, because the Tribune never bothers to check such articles
for accuracy, here is a little information from the latest IPCC report on
Climate change.
As far as the legality of the act of civil disobedience
committed by protesters in Clearwater Minnesota, I am not going to pretend to
be a legal authority concerning the charges, except to say that If you have a
beautiful fenced in back yard, and I decided I had a legal right to dump all my
excess garbage all over your lawn, you might just become angry and might
protest my actions if the police did nothing about your complaint. Perhaps you
can also share this letter with the Tribune’s Citizen’s Advocates?
In the case of climate change however, unlike the letter’s
author who is not mentioned except that he or she apparently writes for the
Sentinel of Fairmont, Minn., unlike his or her many claims that “There is
nothing proven about ‘climate change,’ and, “There is nothing proven about
mankind’s contribution to it” or that, “There is nothing to indicate that
Canada tar sands are the cause,” there are enormous amounts of scientific and
observational evidence proving that global warming is happening, and that man
is the primary cause. As far as the dangers caused by extracting tar sands oil,
many climate scientists believe that if that is done completely, the impact on the
environment from adding Co2 may be fatal—that is, it would place us beyond a
“tipping point” where concentrations of Co2 become so great, it will literally
be impossible to reduce Co2 back to safe levels. Here is some info from this
scientifically valid website:
“The environmental impact of the oil
sands is an issue that has been extremely divisive. As with the
extraction and use of any fossil
fuel, negative environmental effects arise as a result of the
extraction, upgrading, and processing of bitumen from
the oil sands. Although some steps are being taken to reduce the severity of
these impacts - such as reclamation - there are still associated climate, air,
and water effects. Since there are so many environmental impacts that can be
discussed, the main concerns have been broken down into several core issues
including:
Tailings Ponds Impacts: Tailings ponds are
settling ponds that contain the waste byproduct of oil sands extraction and
upgrading. They are a mix of water, sand, silt, clay, unrecovered hydrocarbons,
and other contaminants.
Climate Impacts: The greenhouse gas
emissions for oil sand extraction and processing are significantly larger than
for conventional crude oil. These emissions contribute to global warming and
the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Water Impacts: The extraction of bitumen
from oil sands requires a large amount of water, and thus water use is a
concern when looking at oil sands extraction. Water used in the oil sands can
be recycled, but only small amounts of this water are returned to the natural
cycle.
Air Quality Impacts: Along with
greenhouse gases, other pollutants are released into the air during oil sands
operations. These pollutants are harmful to the environment and human health
and include gases such as NOx and SOx.
Reclamation: Reclamation is the attempt
to return previously used land - whether it is old surface mines, or more
frequently tailings ponds - to their natural state. The chemicals in the
tailings are factors that can make reclamation difficult. And as far as what
science knows about Co2 and man’s contributions to it, therefore global
warming;”
Here are a few relevant findings from the 2014 Climate
support summary for policy makers;
These important findings are highlighted in orange
throughout the PDF
“Observed Changes and their Causes Human influence on the
climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts
on human and natural systems. {1}”
“Observed changes in the climate system Warming of the
climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean
have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has
risen. {1.1}”
“Causes of climate change Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions since the pre-industrial era have driven large increases in the
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) (Figure SPM.1c). Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic
CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 ± 310 GtCO2. About 40% of these
emissions have remained in the atmosphere (880 ± 35 GtCO2); the rest was
removed from the atmosphere and stored on land (in plants and soils) and in the
ocean. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2,
causing ocean acidification. About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions between
1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years (high confidence) (Figure
SPM.1d). {1.2.1, 1.2.2} Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased
since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth,
and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least
the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other
anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are
extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since
the mid-20th century. {1.2, 1.3.1}”
“Impacts of climate change in recent decades, changes in
climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and
across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of
its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing
climate.”
“Evidence of observed climate change impacts is strongest
and most comprehensive for natural systems. In many regions, changing
precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems,
affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence).
Many terrestrial, freshwater and marine species have shifted their geographic
ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and species
interactions in response to ongoing climate change (high confidence). Some
impacts on human systems have also been attributed to climate change, with a
major or minor contribution of climate change distinguishable from other
influences (Figure SPM.4). Assessment of many studies covering a wide range of
regions and crops shows that negative impacts of climate change on crop yields
have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence). Some impacts of
ocean acidification on marine organisms have been attributed to human influence
(medium confidence). {1.3.2}”
“Extreme event Changes in many extreme weather and climate
events have been observed since about 1950. Some of these changes have been
linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature extremes,
an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea
levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number
of regions. {1.4}”
“Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts Continued
emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting
changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of
severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting
climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.
{2} SPM 2.1 Key drivers of future climate Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely
determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions vary over a wide range, depending on
both socio-economic development and climate policy. {2.1}”
“Projected changes in the climate’s system surface
temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed
emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and
last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and
frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and
global mean sea level to rise. {2.2}”
Here is some info about planned future reports done by the
IPCC:
Sixth Assessment Cycle
“In March 2017, the IPCC approved the outlines of the Special
Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and Climate
Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification,
land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse
gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. The two reports are expected to be finalized
in September 2019.”
In September 2018 the IPCC will also finalize Global
Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of
1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission
pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of
climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. The
IPCC will also refine the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories for delivery in 2019.”
Despite all of the evidence above, many deniers continue to
push the idea that there is no proof that human caused global warming exists,
or that worldwide temperature averages have even risen? However, science has
known for more than 150 years that concentrations of Co2 can, and do, affect
the heat from infrared solar radiation. This means that when certain kinds of
Co2 isotopes collect naturally in the atmosphere they prevent much of the
infrared radiation that would normally enter space and be gone, from leaving.
And the Co2 disperses or scatters more infrared back into the atmosphere,
meaning it accumulates and the warming cycle will continue rising due to that
accumulation.
There are also tons of observational evidence that prove
just how much warming is caused by greenhouse gases, which are also causing
worldwide temperature averages to rise. One of which is the melting ice in the Arctic. When the snow cover is present across the arctic,
the white snow reflects greater amounts of solar radiation, but with warming
less and less of that snow and sea ice is present year-round. We are already at
a point where we have almost no sea ice during the summer seasons in the Arctic. And when the land snow melts it runs into the
ocean and has gradually been increasing water levels there. Currently they
amount to relatively small amounts each decade, but, are expected to accelerate
in the future, and could result in releasing methane gas from ancient organic
material under the snow—which could greatly accelerate sea rise. And although
methane is another powerful greenhouse gas, overall the greatest danger is from
Co2, since it stays in the atmosphere much longer than methane or water vapor
and can take hundreds of years to be completely absorbed by natural buffers in
the environment—so daily Co2 emissions continue to accumulate.
The arctic snow cover and sea ice are just one factor among
dozens of others that provide powerful evidence that human caused global
warming does exist and is primarily caused by greenhouse gases. And you can
look them up on many well-established sites that are scientifically reliable
sources, such as NASA and NOAA.
Here is a great video put out by NASA of sea ice diminishing
from the 1980s to 2016:
Deniers like to pick at various aspects of warming and
trying to deny they prove that global warming is happening--often by cherry
picking data, or by emphasizing honest statements from scientists who have
readily admitted that not enough data is available to determine the extent of
some of global warming’s specific aspects. How many deniers have written
letters to the Tribune admitting they were wrong about anything they said in
their letters, or that they have no other proven ideas about why global warming
is happening?
Here also is a link to a rebuttal at the website below that
explains why deniers’ claims that the earth has not been warming is dead wrong!
It makes perfect sense to me and is certainly backed up by pertinent and
verifiable data—scientists do not just make up the temperature readings from
around the world in order to prove that we have continued to warm for a long
period of time! In reality, all of those readings ARE added together and used
to determine their global mean values. If you go to the link below, you will
see about 200 other rebuttals that debunk many other common talking points used
by deniers. Most of the letters sent to the Tribune by deniers, will probably
use some false information which has been circulated, and which is drawn from
such bogus myths! So Please just try consulting this link, or simply contact a
knowledgeable professor from the UMD Earth sciences department, if you should
ever decide to actually check the letters from deniers or “skeptics” to
determine if their info is real or is just flat out wrong.
Sincerely, Peter W. Johnson
