Tuesday, May 19, 2015

April 2015 Fourth Hottest April Ever

The NOAA State of the Climate Report for April 2015 was released today. While the news is bad, at least it isn't as bad as it has been. April was the fourth hottest April ever recorded, but the temperature anomaly for April was the smallest since last November. And, if you STILL doubt the reality of global warming, consider this from the report:
Examining the data beyond the traditional calendar year, the latest 12-month period (May 2014–April 2015) ties with the record set last month (April 2014–March 2015) as the warmest 12-month period among all months in the 136-year period of record, as shown in the table below. In fact, this record was set several times over the past year, and nine of the ten warmest 12-month periods have occurred within the past two years (September 1997–August 1998 ties as eighth warmest). Nine of these ten 12-month periods also comprise months in two overlapping years. Only the full calendar year of 2014 is among the ten warmest 12-month periods (ties for sixth warmest). 

Our 2015 count looks like this:

April was tied for the fourth hottest April on record;

March was the hottest March on record;

February was the second hottest February on record;

January was the second hottest January on record.

So far, 2015 has one hottest month, two second hottest months, and one fourth hottest month ever recorded.

For the last 12 months, the tally is:

April 2015 was tied for the fourth hottest April ever recorded;

March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;

February 2015 was the second hottest February ever recorded;

January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;

December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;

November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;

October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;

September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;

August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;

July 2014 was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;

June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded;

May 2014 was the hottest May ever recorded;

So, let's see what the score is for the last 12 months: one 7th hottest month, two 4th hottest months, two 2nd hottest months and seven hottest months ever.

Nine of the last twelve months were either the hottest or second hottest ever recorded.

The last 12 months ties the record for the hottest 12-month period ever recorded. Nine of the ten hottest 12-month periods have occurred in the last two years.


  1. It is also interesting to see what is happening with night time temperatures.

  2. Here's some reading material for you:


  3. The first thing I noticed was this paper was written by a fossil fuel hack.

  4. In April, The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center advised that we are now experiencing a strong El Nino event, which started in September of 2014, and is continuing into 2015.

    Even weak El Ninos temporarily raise average global temperatures, so current higher temperatures are simply a natural event and are NOT an indication of any increased global warming due to greenhouse gasses, as you have been implying.


  5. That is an absolutely false statement and, once again, demonstrates how you simply reject any science you don't like. Go to the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml) and read their El Nino advisory for yourself. Here is an excerpt from the May advisory:

    "By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea
    surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific"

    Note, "weak to moderate," not "strong," as you claimed. The April advisory called it a "weak" El Nino and said El Nino conditions were present by "the end of March." The February alert didn't have El Nino being present at all. And, also note the Australians didn't declare El Nino was present until much later than the U.S. did. The fact that the warming began in September does not mean El Nino started then. Warming starts and stops all the time.

    Ultimately, you completely reject science by suggesting El Ninos somehow are causing global warming and that is 100% false. El Ninos are not heating events. Only the Sun can heat the planet. El Ninos merely move the heat around. Energy that has been stored in the oceans (energy from the Sun) is now being moved out of the oceans and into the atmosphere. If extra heat was not being stored in the planet, we would not be experiencing a hotter climate.

    Additionally, by your own false claim, you prove yourself wrong. You stated the El Nino was present in September (not true, as we have seen), but what about the other nine months of the year? How is it all of those months that were the hottest, or nearly the hottest, months ever recorded BEFORE your stated El Nino start date?

    There's always gaping holes anytime anyone rejects science. Sooner or later, the ends aren't going to meet and they'll be left with something that destroys all of their claims.

  6. I have read explanations on the Skeptical Science website which explain that if one graphs the high temperatures present during El Ninos or the low temps present during of La Ninas there is no evidence that these particular points on a graph are part of an ongoing trend of their own. Therefore, they do not cause the overall long term warming trends that climate scientists have so much clear evidence of.

  7. Dr. Keating:

    You need to examine the historical table of El Ninos that accompanied the April National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center report.

    It clearly shows the beginning of the current El Nino in Sept. 2014, as I have stated, and is the cause of the "record" high avg. global temperature for 2014

    As I had also mentioned, even weak El Ninos cause a temporary rise in average global temperatures. Examples are the weak El Ninos of 1976-77 and 2006-07

    For the current El Nino, the average anomalous global temperatures for the past six months Nov-Apr, are, in deg. C., 0.59, 0.72, 0.75, 0.77, 0.84, 0.75, certainly high enough to qualify as a strong El Nino. The lower April anomaly may either signify a waning of the El Nino, or the cooling effects of the recent volcanic eruptions (Temp data from GISS monthly maps).

    I have never claimed that El Ninos are causing global warming (although it is obvious that you are). They are simply temporary deviations above the "background" average global temperature

  8. That is absoutely correct.

  9. And yet, you still want to say the record heat is due to El Nino. Again, all El Nino (and La Nina) does is to redistribute the heat that is already in the system. If heat was not being stored in the oceans due to the presence of greenhouse gases, it would not be possible for it to affect the surface temp. Ultimately, you have to explain how the heat got stored in the oceans in the first place.

  10. It sure seems to me you're the one that isn't examining the historical record. Heating begins and end all the time without causing a change to the surface temperature record. Take a look at the ENSO website at NOAA:

    This site states,

    "El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
    La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to - 0.5ºC.
    By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
    CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months."

    It ONI index for the three-month periods beginning last September-October-November (SON) and continuing until the most recent February-March-April (FMA) are .5, .7, .7, .6, .5, and .6. Considering the threshold is .5, these numbers indicate it has been a weak to moderate El Nino so far. Surprisingly, exactly how NOAA has described it.

    At the same time, the indices for the previous periods of the year were -.6, -.6, -.5, -.1, .1, .1, 0, 0, .2. By your claim, we should have had a very cool year because it was close to La Nina conditions at the beginning of the year. How do you explain a record warm year when the ocean spent a great deal of the year COOLING the surface temperature.

    Once again, the science does not support your claims. Last year was the record hottest year simply because we have polluted the atmosphere with massive amounts of greenhouse gases which are keeping the planet from cooling off.

    By the way, get used to the 'record hottest year' because we will be seeing a whole lot of them going forward.

  11. You either did not understand, or did not read, my full comment. The trend I mentioned was a graph of El Nino temperatures alone, without the normal warming trend data included. However, by itself, the El Nino graph (indicating the high temps in those years) showed no rising El Nino trend and thus El Nino's influence on the temperature record cannot alter the overall (warming trend) in general---and just the opposite applies to La Nina years which, by themselves cannot be producing any overall cooling trends, and thus, they are also not altering the current world wide warming trend.

    El Ninos may contribute to very hot years, like 1998, but they do not influence worldwide average temperature in ways that contradict our well established rising temperature trend. The chart provided by conundrum, clearly shows that many years after 1998 were actually hotter than it was. And Mr. Keatings explained clearly how the years supposedly showing no warming for 18 years, were cherry picked to produce the illusion that warming had stopped. I was NOT agreeing with you!

    I couldn't find the chart I saw indicating that El Nino or La Nina years( by themselves), are producing neither warming (El Ninos) or cooling (La Ninas) trends. However here is a link to the skeptical science site that offers a complete explanation which includes both of these phenomena:


  12. Sorry to have stepped out of the conversation.

    I took Dr. Keating's repeated requests to take my ideas to the Wattsupwiththat Blog and stop bothering him, and posted a guest submission on May 26 titled "The Role of Sulfur Dioxide Aerosols in Climate Change"

    Actually, it is primarily an update of my earlier Guest Submission on this site, but includes more supportive data.


    Bottom line: The Climate Sensitivity to anthropogenic SO2 aerosols is .approx. 02 deg. C per Megatonne added or removed.

    The Climate Sensitivity to CO2 is zero.

    All very controversial. You might want to check it out.

  13. The problem with your claims is that the data doesn't support them. Your claim is global warming is due to a reduction in SO2 emissions and you cite US and European emissions as your only evidence while ignoring emissions from the rest of the world. When you take worldwide emissions into account you get periods when SO2 levels are increasing but the temperature continues to increase. This, by itself, is enough to show your claim is invalid. In addition, you fail to compare periods of SO2 levels. When you do this, you get periods of equal SO2 levels but very different global temperatures. Conversely, you also get periods of very different SO2 concentrations but the same temperature. If SO2 levels were the driving force, as you claim, then equal levels of SO2 concentrations would result in equal global surface temperatures, which they don't. Once again, invalidating your hypothesis.

    Ultimately, though, the proof that your claims are invalid is they were accepted on WUWT. Quite literally, any time I see something that comes from that web site I know it's either falsified or invalid. Period, end of discussion.