Trump likes to boast that he's "like, really smart." He goes even further, stating, "I think that would qualify as not smart, but genius." I've been reading his statements for many years, going back to the time I first saw him on 60 Minutes in 1985, and my conclusion, based on his own words, is that he's not very smart at all. Based on what I've seen, I would peg his IQ at about average - right around 100.
But worse than that, he's not well educated. I think this goes to his ego. When he comes across a topic he can't understand, he simply ignores it and makes up something to satisfy his need to feel superior. In short, he's not smart enough to understand science, so he rejects it. And, this is why he isn't just a climate change denier, he's a climate change hater and is bent on a war on science. Science makes him feel inferior, so he's going to do all he can to destroy it.
His most recent statements, in a British ITV interview, is a perfect example of his complete lack of understanding of science. In this interview, he stated, "There is a cooling, and there’s a heating." Really, Mr. President? Which one is it? Cooling? Or, heating? You can't have both. The planet is either heating up, or it isn't.
Doubling down on that lack of understanding, he simultaneously appeared to refer to the the false claim about global warming and climate change phraseology when he stated, "I mean, look, it used to not be climate change, it used to be global
warming. Right? That wasn’t working too well because it was getting too
cold all over the place.”
Actually, it still is global warming. Back in the W. Bush administration, there was concern about how the public was getting concerned about 'global warming,' and it was decided to start referring to it by another name that sounded less dire. So, the Republicans began referring to it as 'climate change.' This is known as the Luntz memo. Anti-science people like to claim scientists changed the name because there was no warming. In fact, it was the deniers who changed the name because there was too much warming. Scientists have adopted this extra term because it covers more than global warming - ocean acidification, for example.
And, no, it isn't getting too cold 'all over the place,' as Trump stated. In fact, according to NASA and NOAA, 2017 was the second or third hottest year on record. According to NOAA, the five hottest years ever recorded have occurred since 2006. What is alarming about that figure is that there was no El Nino in 2017 to boost the atmospheric temperature. This is the new normal, as they say.
Not having been satisfied displaying his ignorance, he went even further and stated “polar ice caps were supposed to be gone by now,” but instead they’re “breaking records.”
No, and no.
While some individuals made claims ice caps were supposed to be gone by now, the vast majority have been stating we should expect an ice-free Arctic Ocean during the summer sometime around the 2040 - 2050 time frame. I happen to think it will first occur in the 2030s. Which illustrates the point I'm making - even the pessimistic scientists haven't been predicting an ice free Arctic Ocean by now.
And, as for the 'breaking records,' he's not only wrong, he's very wrong. The minimum extent for 2017 was the eight-lowest minimum in the satellite record and was 1.58 million square kilometers below the long-term average. Even Antarctica is below average and experienced it's fifth lowest maximum extent this past September (summer time in Antarctica). Arctic sea ice extent is declining at a rate of 13.2% per decade.
It's bad enough when your neighbor, or coworker, or someone in the bar isn't smart enough to understand the science. But, when the President of the United States isn't, it's a serious problem.
Showing posts with label Warming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warming. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
xkcd: Earth Temperature Timeline
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
There Was No 'Pause' in Global Warming
Thursday, December 17, 2015
No Surprise: Another Heat Record
NOAA released their global analysis today for November. I'm sure no one who has been following the data is surprised, but November 2015 was the hottest November ever recorded. That makes seven months in a row that a temperature record has been set. November was nearly 1 degree C above the 20th century average. Almost halfway to the 2 degree mark the Paris accord is trying to limit us to.
The litany of records NOAA lists is depressing. I'll limit myself to just these. The September-November period was the hottest such period ever recorded. The first 11 months of 2015 were the hottest first 11 months of any year ever recorded. Nine of those eleven months were record hot months.
Things are not good.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
November 2015 was the hottest November ever recorded;
October 2015 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2015 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded.
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and ten hottest months ever.
The litany of records NOAA lists is depressing. I'll limit myself to just these. The September-November period was the hottest such period ever recorded. The first 11 months of 2015 were the hottest first 11 months of any year ever recorded. Nine of those eleven months were record hot months.
Things are not good.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
November 2015 was the hottest November ever recorded;
October 2015 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2015 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded.
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and ten hottest months ever.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Warming Has Not Stopped
I would like to hear from even one denier who can take a look at this plot and explain to me how they can justify saying global warming has stopped.
 |
| Source: Accuweather |
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Record Heat Continues
It's that bad time of the month for deniers. That's
because NOAA released the October Global Analysis
today showing this last October to be the hottest October ever
recorded. It also had the highest departure from average ever recorded
for any month, beating the record set just the previous month. That was the sixth consecutive hottest month in a row.
January through October 2015 is the hottest such period ever recorded. And, the bad news continues for the deniers. The deviation from the 20th century average is greater than the statistical uncertainty. The deniers out there will have to find some other justification for rejecting science.
It really makes me wonder, if there has been no warming, why do the months keep getting hotter?
So far, 2015 has eight hottest months ever recorded, one second hottest month, and one third hottest month, not to mention the hottest of all 1630 measured months (July).
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
October 2015 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2015 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded.
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
It really makes me wonder, if there has been no warming, why do the months keep getting hotter?
So far, 2015 has eight hottest months ever recorded, one second hottest month, and one third hottest month, not to mention the hottest of all 1630 measured months (July).
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
October 2015 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2015 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded.
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Yes, Mr. Monckton, Warming Continues
I see it's time for Christopher Monckton, the Great Lord Denier, to come out with another of his ridiculous claims that there has been no warming for xx number of years (time span to be determined). That's because NOAA released the September Global Analysis today showing this last September to be the hottest September ever recorded. It also had the highest departure from average ever recorded for any month. That was the fifth consecutive hottest month in a row. January through September 2015 is the hottest such period ever recorded.
Tell us, Mr. Monckton, if there has been no warming, why do the months keep getting hotter?
So far, 2015 has seven hottest months ever recorded, one second hottest month, and one third hottest month, not to mention the hottest of all 1629 measured months (July).
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
Tell us, Mr. Monckton, if there has been no warming, why do the months keep getting hotter?
So far, 2015 has seven hottest months ever recorded, one second hottest month, and one third hottest month, not to mention the hottest of all 1629 measured months (July).
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Record Highs in Australia Increasing
I was reading a paper in Geophysical Research Letters on a study conducted on Australian hot records (high maximum and high minimum temperatures). If the climate is stable, the number of record highs should equal the number of record lows. However, during the period of 2000 - 2014 the number of record highs outnumbered the record lows by twelve to one on average.
One of the things I keep saying about regional temperatures is that we are discussing global warming, not xxx regional warming. That applies here, as well. The term is 'global' warming, not 'Australian' warming. However, when you combine many regional trends you get a global trend. And, in fact, the Australian trend is characteristic of the global trend (see the Climate Change Institute's Climate Reanalyzer for a global view).
It has been said that when we see the effects of climate change it will be too late. Hopefully, this is not true because we can certainly see the effects in Australia, as well as other parts of the world.
One of the things I keep saying about regional temperatures is that we are discussing global warming, not xxx regional warming. That applies here, as well. The term is 'global' warming, not 'Australian' warming. However, when you combine many regional trends you get a global trend. And, in fact, the Australian trend is characteristic of the global trend (see the Climate Change Institute's Climate Reanalyzer for a global view).
It has been said that when we see the effects of climate change it will be too late. Hopefully, this is not true because we can certainly see the effects in Australia, as well as other parts of the world.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
August Sets Another Temperature Record
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded with an average temperature .88 degrees C (1.58 F) above the 20th century average. It tied with January 2007 as the month with the third largest temperature departure ever recorded. August had the highest sea surface average temperature ever recorded.
August is the sixth month to break it's monthly record this year, including February, March, May, June, and July.
So far, 2015 has six hottest months, one second hottest months, and one third hottest month ever recorded, not to mention the hottest of all 1628 measured months. 2015 already has five of the ten largest temperature departures above the average. It is a mere formality to wait until January to declare 2015 as the hottest year ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded.
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
August is the sixth month to break it's monthly record this year, including February, March, May, June, and July.
So far, 2015 has six hottest months, one second hottest months, and one third hottest month ever recorded, not to mention the hottest of all 1628 measured months. 2015 already has five of the ten largest temperature departures above the average. It is a mere formality to wait until January to declare 2015 as the hottest year ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded.
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
Friday, August 28, 2015
More Scientists Comment On Tom Harris' Deceptions
Turns out I'm not the only one stepping up to comment on Tom Harris' silly editorial on global temperature. Take a look here. The facts are in - Harris continues to have zero credibility.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Tom Harris' Lies About The Temperature Record
Fossil fuel-supported deniers are selling the story that the
temperature record is false and there is no global warming. This is
particularly interesting considering the number of paid shills who keep
insisting the warming is all natural, or the warming is good for us. How could
warming be natural if there is none? How could warming be good for us if there
is none? This is merely one simple, shining example of how the paid deniers are
liars with the goal of deceiving people. Now, there is another, a editorial
written by Tom Harris.
Tom Harris is a paid shill of the fossil fuel industry. He
also has strong ties to the tobacco industry. These are both industries with
track records of falsifying the scientific record in order to prevent any
government or public actions that might be damaging to them. These links
include a strong affiliation with the Heartland Institute, which receives
considerable funding from the fossil fuel and tobacco industries. (Heartland,
by the way, is a major player in the fight to convince people that second-hand
smoke is harmless.) Mr. Harris denies his link to these industries, but the
evidence is conclusive. Take a look at these postings on Mr. Harris and his
affiliations.
Part of Mr. Harris’ job, possibly his entire job, is to put
false claims in editorials and letters to the editor anywhere he can. In this
way, he can promulgate any lie he wants without worrying about being held
accountable. After all, he’s entitled to his opinion, even if it is a lie. Mr.
Harris has a long record of making false statements. Take a look at his
comments from 2006 on Al Gore’s An
Inconvenient Truth documentary.
A recent posting of his concerns the temperature record and
is filled with falsehoods and false arguments. You can see his entire posting
here:
Let’s take a look and see exactly how he goes about lying.
Mr. Harris states, “But government spokespeople rarely
mention the inconvenient fact that these records are being set by less than the
uncertainty in the statistics.” The uncertainty, he claims, makes the data
‘meaningless.’ This, of course, is nonsense and is a clear demonstration of his
intent to deceive. Let’s take a closer look.
- Warmest year on record: 48.0%
- One of the five warmest years: 90.4%
- One of the 10 warmest years: 99.2%
- One of the 20 warmest years: 100.0%
- Warmer than the 20th century average: 100.0%
- Warmer than the 1981-2010 average: 100.0%
Wait! There is ‘only’ a 48% chance 2014 actually was the
hottest year on record. That sounds like Tom Harris is right. And, there is the
lie. It’s the lie of omission. If 2014 wasn’t the hottest, then some other year
must be. Take a look at the rest of the data. The chance of 2014 being one of
the top ten hottest years is 99.2% (virtually certain) and it is 100% likely it
is in the top 20. It is also 100% certain 2014 was hotter than the 20th
century average of the 1981-2010 average. Every year of the 21st
century is in the top sixteen hottest years.
These are facts Tom Harris and other paid deniers fail to
mention. The important point is not that 2014 (and soon, 2015) is the hottest
year on record, what is important is that every single hottest year ever
recorded has occurred since 1997, and they are consistently getting hotter. The
data fluctuates from year to year, but the trend is what is important and is
unmistakable. Take a look here:
Tell us, Mr. Harris, if July 2015 wasn’t the hottest month
ever recorded, why didn’t you discuss the trend? But, it gets worse. Mr. Harris
in no way demonstrated July 2015 was not the hottest month on record. In fact,
he made a clear-cut argument it is bad and could be much worse than claimed.
The reason for this is deniers always take the margin of error the way they
want and it doesn’t work that way. Taking the data you want is known as ‘cherry
picking’ and is one of the biggest and most common lies deniers use.
The margin of error is a plus-or-minus. When they say the
data is ± .14 degrees, that means the range, with great probability, is between
.14 degrees less and .14 degrees greater. So, in fact, if there is a chance the
temperature was less, there is an equal chance it was greater. In other words,
there is a reasonable chance July 2015 was even hotter than reported. The data
is conclusive – the temperature trend is upward and the planet is getting
hotter. This is true even if July 2015 isn’t the hottest month ever. Funny how
Mr. Harris didn’t mention that. Was that because he doesn’t want you to know? I
mean, he wouldn’t be doing his job if you end up thinking for yourself. By the
way, the temperature rise over the 20th century average is many
times the size of the margin of error. Strange, Mr. Harris didn’t mention that
either. Another lie of omission on his part.
His deception continues when he states, “After all, there is very little data for the 70 percent of Earth’s surface that is ocean. There is also little data for mountainous and desert regions, not to mention the Antarctic. Much of the coverage is so sparse that NASA is forced to make the ridiculous claim that regions are adequately covered if there is a temperature-sensing station within nearly 750 miles.”
Why is this a deception? Again, Mr. Harris is engaging in the lie of omission, one of his favorite tactics. What Mr. Harris doesn’t want you to know is that the entire planet is measured every day by satellite instruments. That data is in addition to the ground stations he mentions which provide ground-truthing. This satellite data allows us to obtain the temperature at various levels of the atmosphere as well as the land and ocean surface. His claims about the distance between data points is entirely false. Why didn’t he mention the satellite data?
Mr. Harris then writes a peculiar paragraph, beginning with “In their award winning book…” I can find no reference that says Taken By Storm has won any awards. In fact, the only reviews I found soundly blasted it. Take a look at this one example (there’s plenty more):
http://wellbeing.ihsp.mcgill.ca/library/takenByStormReview.html
Maybe they got an award from the Heartland Institute. That would be a true statement of its credibility (i.e., none). In any event, Mr. Harris goes on with a definition of temperature. Yeah. So, what? Temperature measures the amount of energy contained in something. I’m not sure what point he’s trying to make and I don’t think he does, either. That’s usually the case when deniers show and try to fool people into thinking they know something about science.
Then, he continues the lies, stating, “Even if enough accurate surface temperature measurements existed to ensure reasonable planetary coverage (it doesn’t).” We already covered this one. Yes, Mr. Harris, there are accurate enough records. But, he doesn’t stop there and continues with complaints about how the data processing methods aren’t known. First, the specific method isn’t as important as ensuring you use the same method on the entire data base. What we want to see is the trend over time. Again, Mr. Harris has committed the lie of omission. The truth is four agencies around the world and the Berkeley Earth Project all use different methodologies (and even different data bases), but come up with essentially the same results. Again, the lie of omission.
Mr. Harris then makes one of the most egregious statements I have ever seen him make and he has a record of whoppers. He states,
“Even if you could calculate some sort of meaningful global temperature statistic, the figure would be unimportant. No one and nothing would experience it directly since we all live in regions, not the globe. There is no super-sized being straddling the planet, feeling global averages in temperature. Global warming does not matter.”
Wow! I had to read this several times to make sure I wasn’t misreading it. So, Mr. Harris, we don’t need to worry about all of those silly little things that happen on the other side of the planet because we don’t straddle the planet? Things like massive droughts, war, famine, ISIS, etc. I mean, no one is a ‘super-sized being straddling the planet.’ Of course, when those effects of global warming hit us directly we don’t need to worry about it because it’s just us and there is no ‘super-sized being straddling the planet.’ You know, effects such as mass extinctions, food shortages, hotter summers, more severe winter storms, more extreme weather, higher utility bills, loss of jobs, more flooding, coastal erosion due to sea level rise, and don’t forget the $44 trillion that climate change is expected to cost us.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/cost-of-not-acting-on-climate-change-44-trillion-citi.html
Also, notice how Mr. Harris went from saying there is no global warming to saying it doesn’t matter. Which is it? No global warming or it doesn’t matter? You can’t have both.
Once again, the lie of omission. And, this was a huge lie.
Mr. Harris then states, “Future generations are bound to ask why America closed its coal-fueled generating stations, its cheapest, most plentiful source of electric power, and wasted billions of dollars trying to stop insignificant changes in imaginary phenomena.”
No, Mr. Harris, future generations are going to wonder why we debated for so long before acting. They are going to wonder why we didn’t immediately close the fossil fuel plants when we learned their emissions were destroying the ozone layer, causing acid rain, providing the number one source of mercury in the food chain (our food chain), poisoning the air with cancer-causing radioactive debris, poisoning our bodies with particulate matter, and poisoning our water supply with arsenic. And, oh yeah, destroying the world’s environment by causing climate change. They will see we had cheaper, safer energy sources. They will see the science was settled and the world’s scientists were in nearly unanimous agreement on the dangers. Then, they will wonder why we allowed paid shills to lie and deceive without holding them accountable.
The sad part is I don’t know how to answer that. Maybe the time is coming when we will hold them accountable.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Record Heat Continues Through July
Sounding like a broken record, the NCDC released their Global Analysis for July
this morning. I have to wonder if there is anyone on the entire planet who would be surprised to hear July was the hottest July ever recorded. The previous record was set in 1998 (the record El Nino period). Last month broke that record by .08 degrees C (.14 F) and that is a significant amount. This past
July was .81 degrees C (1.46 F) hotter than the 20th century average. This was the hottest month ever recorded - any month, not just July. That is 1627 months since the records began.
July is the fifth month to break it's monthly record this year. The other four are February, March, May, and June. April was originally classified as the fourth hottest April but is now listed as the third hottest. February was previously listed as the second hottest, but is now listed as the hottest February ever.
So far, 2015 has five hottest months, one second hottest months, and one third hottest month ever recorded, not to mention the hottest of all 1627 measured months. January through July 2015 is the hottest such period ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one second hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
But don't worry. The deniers are still telling us there hasn't been any warming for ### (insert the number of your choice - they do) years.
July is the fifth month to break it's monthly record this year. The other four are February, March, May, and June. April was originally classified as the fourth hottest April but is now listed as the third hottest. February was previously listed as the second hottest, but is now listed as the hottest February ever.
So far, 2015 has five hottest months, one second hottest months, and one third hottest month ever recorded, not to mention the hottest of all 1627 measured months. January through July 2015 is the hottest such period ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;
Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one second hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.
But don't worry. The deniers are still telling us there hasn't been any warming for ### (insert the number of your choice - they do) years.
Monday, July 20, 2015
More Record Temps in June
The NCDC released their Global Analysis for June this morning. The quick take is that June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded. The worse news is that this broke the record set only last year - and it did so by .12 degrees C, a huge increase. This past June was .88 degrees C hotter than the 20th century average. It was the fourth highest departure from average ever recorded. The two highest departures occurred this year in February and March, both at .90 degrees C above the long-term average. January 2007 had the third highest departure at .89 degrees C.
Along with March and May, June is the third month to break it's monthly record this year. July 2014 through June 2015 was the hottest 12-month period ever recorded. The record it broke was set just last month. In fact, the 10 hottest 12-month periods have all occurred in the last ten months.
With all of that news, I don't think I need to go into more details. It was hot and getting hotter. Here's the tally to date:
June was the hottest June ever recorded;
May was the hottest May on record;
April was tied for the fourth hottest April on record;
March was the hottest March on record;
February was the second hottest February on record;
January was the second hottest January on record.
So far, 2015 has three hottest months, two second hottest months, and one fourth hottest month ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the fourth hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the second hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2014 was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
So, let's see what the score is for the last 12 months: one 7th hottest month, two 4th hottest months, two 2nd hottest months and seven hottest months ever.
And, don't forget, the hottest 12-month period ever recorded.
Onwards and upwards.
Along with March and May, June is the third month to break it's monthly record this year. July 2014 through June 2015 was the hottest 12-month period ever recorded. The record it broke was set just last month. In fact, the 10 hottest 12-month periods have all occurred in the last ten months.
With all of that news, I don't think I need to go into more details. It was hot and getting hotter. Here's the tally to date:
June was the hottest June ever recorded;
May was the hottest May on record;
April was tied for the fourth hottest April on record;
March was the hottest March on record;
February was the second hottest February on record;
January was the second hottest January on record.
So far, 2015 has three hottest months, two second hottest months, and one fourth hottest month ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the fourth hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the second hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2014 was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
So, let's see what the score is for the last 12 months: one 7th hottest month, two 4th hottest months, two 2nd hottest months and seven hottest months ever.
And, don't forget, the hottest 12-month period ever recorded.
Onwards and upwards.
Monday, June 22, 2015
The Death of Thousands Highlights John Coleman's Lie
One of the submissions to the Global Warming Skeptic Challenge was John Coleman's Youtube video, "How It Started." This is one of the most grossly false productions I've seen made by any of the deniers, and I have seen some real whoppers. Simply put, almost everything John Coleman says in this film is an outright lie. Of course, Coleman is associated with the Heartland Institute, so that pretty much explains it all.
Unfortunately, current events are highlighting just how much Mr. Coleman is a liar. Let me quote part of my response to his film:
John Coleman does not have a degree in science and only worked as a TV weatherman. This does not stop him from claiming to be a meteorologist and even signing the so-called Oregon Petition, which is supposed to be limited to scientists. Still, with his experience as a weatherman, there can be no doubt that he is fully aware of at least some of the listed heat waves - and those were just a sample. Now, reality strikes again.
A heat wave that is in progress in Karachi, Pakistan has already killed as many as 140 people. This record-breaking heatwave has brought temperatures as high as 112 degrees F (44.8 C). This heat wave follows right after a heat wave in India last month killed over 2300 people. Temperatures in India reached 120 degrees F and it was hot enough to melt the roads.
(UPDATE(6/23): The death toll in the Pakistan heat wave is now up to nearly 750 people, bringing the total death toll in the two heat waves to approximately 3,250 victims.)
(UPDATE (6/25): The toll from the Pakistani heat wave is over 1000 people dead and many thousands being treated at area hospitals. Between the two heat waves, approximately 3,500 people have died and tens of thousands have suffered injury.)
So, Mr. Coleman, would you like to address how approximately 2,500 people have died from heat waves in mere weeks, but you claim there have been no deadly heat waves since the 1950s? I bet you won't, for one simple reason. Consider this quote from a civil assistant surgeon:
But, that's not the end of it. The EPA is now estimating heat waves will kill over 12,000 people per year by 2100. And, that is just in the United States. 12,000 PER YEAR! By the way, the rich people will simply turn up the air conditioner, so guess who will be doing the dying?
As Pope Francis said in his encyclical, it is the poor people of the world who are suffering from climate change the most.
Unfortunately, current events are highlighting just how much Mr. Coleman is a liar. Let me quote part of my response to his film:
I think I have shown just how this video is an absolute falsehood, from beginning to end. but there is one more statement he made that I want to address. He stated we have not had a deadly heat wave since the 1950s. This is so offensive that I have to address it.
A heat wave in New York City in 1972 killed almost 900 people.
A heat wave in 1980 killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States from a heat wave.
A 1988 U.S. heat wave killed between 5,000 and 10,000 people, although some estimates go as high as 17,000.
A 1995 heat wave in Chicago, IL led to "many deaths."
A 1999 heatwave resulted in over 500 deaths across the U.S.
But, this is just in the U.S., what about other countries?
In the heat wave of 2003 in Europe, between 46,000 and 70,000 people perished.
For Mr. Coleman to stand there and say that there have been no deadly heat waves since the 1950s is so offensive that it discredits everything he has to say (But, of course, he has no credibility remaining by this point anyway, so what's the harm in one more lie?). And, let's make sure we understand something, he started this video bragging about his credentials as a meteorologist! Are you going to believe that a meteorologist with over 30 years experience has no knowledge of these horrible heat waves and did not check his facts before making the video? I do not believe that for an instant. I believe he made his statement with deliberate intent to deceive.
John Coleman does not have a degree in science and only worked as a TV weatherman. This does not stop him from claiming to be a meteorologist and even signing the so-called Oregon Petition, which is supposed to be limited to scientists. Still, with his experience as a weatherman, there can be no doubt that he is fully aware of at least some of the listed heat waves - and those were just a sample. Now, reality strikes again.
A heat wave that is in progress in Karachi, Pakistan has already killed as many as 140 people. This record-breaking heatwave has brought temperatures as high as 112 degrees F (44.8 C). This heat wave follows right after a heat wave in India last month killed over 2300 people. Temperatures in India reached 120 degrees F and it was hot enough to melt the roads.
(UPDATE(6/23): The death toll in the Pakistan heat wave is now up to nearly 750 people, bringing the total death toll in the two heat waves to approximately 3,250 victims.)
(UPDATE (6/25): The toll from the Pakistani heat wave is over 1000 people dead and many thousands being treated at area hospitals. Between the two heat waves, approximately 3,500 people have died and tens of thousands have suffered injury.)
So, Mr. Coleman, would you like to address how approximately 2,500 people have died from heat waves in mere weeks, but you claim there have been no deadly heat waves since the 1950s? I bet you won't, for one simple reason. Consider this quote from a civil assistant surgeon:
"All they need to do is follow basic precautions like avoiding working in the sun. Not many listen. What can we do? It's a problem of poverty."There's the key. It's the POOR people that are dying. I guess we can amend Mr. Coleman's statement to say, "No rich people have died in heat waves since the 1950s." Strangely enough, the man who submitted Mr. Coleman's video to the challenge, Patrick Stratoti, just this evening made comments about how it is the poor people who will suffer if we do anything about global warming. I wonder if he's willing to go to Pakistan and India and tell that to the families of the people who died?
But, that's not the end of it. The EPA is now estimating heat waves will kill over 12,000 people per year by 2100. And, that is just in the United States. 12,000 PER YEAR! By the way, the rich people will simply turn up the air conditioner, so guess who will be doing the dying?
As Pope Francis said in his encyclical, it is the poor people of the world who are suffering from climate change the most.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Hottest May Ever
The National Climatic Data Center released its State of the Climate report for May this morning:
What was that about there has been no warming? It looks like Monckton will have to redo is plot - once again.
Our monthly grim count looks like this:
May was the hottest May on record;
April was tied for the fourth hottest April on record;
March was the hottest March on record;
February was the second hottest February on record;
January was the second hottest January on record.
So far, 2015 has two hottest months, two second hottest months, and one fourth hottest month ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the fourth hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the second hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2014 was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded.
So, let's see what the score is for the last 12 months: one 7th hottest month, two 4th hottest months, two 2nd hottest months and seven hottest months ever.
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2015 was the highest for May in the 136-year period of record, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.08°C (0.14°F). This ties with February 1998 as the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months.The first five months of 2015 were the warmest such period ever recorded. Both the land and the ocean temperatures set records.
What was that about there has been no warming? It looks like Monckton will have to redo is plot - once again.
Our monthly grim count looks like this:
May was the hottest May on record;
April was tied for the fourth hottest April on record;
March was the hottest March on record;
February was the second hottest February on record;
January was the second hottest January on record.
So far, 2015 has two hottest months, two second hottest months, and one fourth hottest month ever recorded.
For the last 12 months, the tally is:
May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;
April 2015 was tied for the fourth hottest April ever recorded;
March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;
February 2015 was the second hottest February ever recorded;
January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;
December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;
November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;
September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;
August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;
July 2014 was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded.
So, let's see what the score is for the last 12 months: one 7th hottest month, two 4th hottest months, two 2nd hottest months and seven hottest months ever.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Odds of Record Warming
I previously posted about a NOAA statement that said "nine of the ten warmest 12-month periods have occurred within the past two years." I then used some probability calculations to find out just how likely this was and came up with the odds being about 1 in 1.6 x 10^17. Very long odds.
But, a complaint was raised concerning my calculations. The calculations were done correctly, but the premise of the calculations was what was called into question. Namely, I used every month as being random when in fact, given one 12-month period, the next 12-month period (and previous one, as well) would have 11 months in common with it. So, it is not a truly random series. This, the objector said, would make a difference. Once it was pointed out, I agreed and went to another source to help me out - Dr. John Grego of the University of South Carolina.
Dr. Grego and his colleagues did a similar study addressing the fact that all 15 years since the year 2000 have been in the top-20 hottest months. They wanted to know what are the chances of that happening on a random basis and came up with the odds of it happening randomly are 1.5 quadrillion to 1. This study was the actual inspiration for my posting mentioned above, so I thought this would be a good place to check. Dr. Grego was kind enough to take the time to figure the odds and this is his response:
But, a complaint was raised concerning my calculations. The calculations were done correctly, but the premise of the calculations was what was called into question. Namely, I used every month as being random when in fact, given one 12-month period, the next 12-month period (and previous one, as well) would have 11 months in common with it. So, it is not a truly random series. This, the objector said, would make a difference. Once it was pointed out, I agreed and went to another source to help me out - Dr. John Grego of the University of South Carolina.
Dr. Grego and his colleagues did a similar study addressing the fact that all 15 years since the year 2000 have been in the top-20 hottest months. They wanted to know what are the chances of that happening on a random basis and came up with the odds of it happening randomly are 1.5 quadrillion to 1. This study was the actual inspiration for my posting mentioned above, so I thought this would be a good place to check. Dr. Grego was kind enough to take the time to figure the odds and this is his response:
Hello Dr. Keating--it's straightforward enough to write down the correlation structure for 12-month running means, but trying to account for that in an urn-model probability calculation looked formidable to me. So I simulated the process instead, while still using an underlying assumption that monthly temperatures were independent normal random variables, which I would consider to be a naive, but instructive approach. I appended R code at the end of this email. Basically, I generated 1632 (136X12) independent normal random variables, computed their 1621 (1632-11) running averages, sorted them from highest to lowest and then tallied how many of the highest 10 (those with rankings from 1612 to 1621) occurred in the last two years (indicated by an index ranging from 1598 to 1621). I first ran this simulation 1000 times, then 100000, then 1000000. I thought I might need to run much larger simulations if probabilities of some of the events below turned out to be very small, but that proved unnecessary.
The table lists each of the possible outcomes (0 of the 10 hottest months occurred in the last two years, 1 of the 10 hottest months occurred in the last two years,...,10 of the 10 hottest months occurred in the last two years) and the proportion of simulations for which each outcome occurred for each of the three simulation series I ran—results were surprisingly consistent as I upped the number of runs. As you can see, the proportion of extreme events is not as small as one might think, apparently driven by the very high autocorrelation in the series of running averages. Note how even a single value in the top 10 is quite small, but then the distribution is quite heavy-tailed and dies off very slowly--almost linearly!
(Listed proportion for test simulations of 1000, 100000, 1000000)
> 0 .92600, .90819, .90902
> 1 .03900, .03889, .03854
> 2 .01000, .02112, .02051
> 3 .01200, .01241, .01262
> 4 .00700, .00778, .00794
> 5 .00200, .00517, .00488
> 6 .00200, .00295, .00300
> 7 .00200, .00187, .00186
> 8 .00000, .00088, .00090
> 9 .00000, .00051, .00051
> 10 .00000, .00023, .00022
>
>
> --John Grego
>
> #Backward-looking 12-month running average--10000 simulations.
>
> a=filter(x,rep(1/n,n), sides=1)
> return(a)
> }
> tx=1632 #1632=136*12
> nhot=NULL
> for(nrep in 1:10000){
> x=rnorm(tx)
> ax=runavg(x)
> sort_ax=order(ax,na.last=NA)
> nhot[nrep]=sum(order(ax)[1612:1621]>=1598)
> }
> table(nhot)
Essentially, what Dr. Grego did was to run the data and determined just how many times this event actually occurred. The three columns demonstrate the outcome when running it 1000 times, 100,000 times and 1 million times. Comparing the columns, we can see the numbers for each occurrence is converging on some percentage. For the case of nine of the ten warmest months occurring on a random basis in a 24-month period the percentage is converging on .00051.
That means, the odds of this happening on a random basis are about 51 out of 100,000 (about 1 in 2000).
Those odds are certainly not as bad as the 1 in 1.6 x 10^17 I previously calculated, but they are sufficient to demonstrate this record could not possibly be random.
Monday, June 15, 2015
New England Breaks Heat Records
With all of the heavy snow the Northeast saw this winter, there were all sorts of pundits mocking global warming and climate change. This really demonstrated their ignorance and its easy to see why by asking a pretty simple question: How did all of the water get high in the atmosphere?
Have you ever shoveled snow? If you haven't, I can tell you it is incredibly hard work. Snow is heavy. Now, imagine square mile after square mile covered in feet of snow and you have the job of shoveling it all. In fact, you have to shovel it to a height of a few miles. No one would disagree this would take a lot of energy. So, where did all of that energy come from? (Think about it. That was not a rhetorical question.)
Of course, facts and science are not the strong points of global warming deniers. Now, the facts are biting them again and they have all run for cover. The temperatures in the Northeast (yes, the SAME Northeast) have set records for May. Take a look:
Just for the fun of it, let's do a count.
Maryland had the fourth hottest May ever recorded.
Delaware, New Jersey, and Maine all had the third hottest Mays ever recorded.
New York and Vermont had the second hottest Mays ever recorded.
Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire all set records with the hottest Mays ever recorded.
All total, 15 states in the East were much warmer than average.
That's a lot of heat.
So, where are all of those pundits now? Oh, yeah. I forgot.
Deniers melt in the heat.
Have you ever shoveled snow? If you haven't, I can tell you it is incredibly hard work. Snow is heavy. Now, imagine square mile after square mile covered in feet of snow and you have the job of shoveling it all. In fact, you have to shovel it to a height of a few miles. No one would disagree this would take a lot of energy. So, where did all of that energy come from? (Think about it. That was not a rhetorical question.)
Of course, facts and science are not the strong points of global warming deniers. Now, the facts are biting them again and they have all run for cover. The temperatures in the Northeast (yes, the SAME Northeast) have set records for May. Take a look:
 |
| Source: NCDC |
Maryland had the fourth hottest May ever recorded.
Delaware, New Jersey, and Maine all had the third hottest Mays ever recorded.
New York and Vermont had the second hottest Mays ever recorded.
Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire all set records with the hottest Mays ever recorded.
All total, 15 states in the East were much warmer than average.
That's a lot of heat.
So, where are all of those pundits now? Oh, yeah. I forgot.
Deniers melt in the heat.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Climate Change Deniers Validate 'No Hiatus' Paper
The term 'hiatus' is something I really dislike because it has been seized by climate change deniers who reject science as 'proof' global warming is not real without bothering to discuss what was meant by a hiatus. Global warming clearly continued with 9 of the top 10 and 15 of the top 20 hottest years ever recorded occurring since the year 2000. It is impossible for this to have occurred randomly. It has had to occur for a reason. Also, the data being discussed was the surface temperature and did not include the 93% of the warming, which takes place in the oceans. So, no, global warming didn't stop. However, it is true the data showed a slowing of the surface temperature rise. This has been the subject of a lot of research. The Pacific Ocean has been believed to be the place where most of this warming was going but it was difficult to identify exactly where. Recent research has indicated it has been moving from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. As the Pacific Ocean warmed, currents and easterly winds pushed the warm water to the west and into the Indian Ocean. Seventy percent of the heat absorbed by the oceans over the last decade appears to be stored in the Indian Ocean.
Now, as has been widely reported, scientists at NOAA have examined the historical data and have determined the so-called hiatus never occurred.Their paper, appearing in the journal Science, states "There is no discernible ... decrease in the rate of warming between the second half of the 20th century and the first 15 years of the 21st century."
The problem has been biases in the data.You don't just collect data from some instrument and run with it. You have to calibrate an instrument to determine exactly what it is measuring. Then the data must be examined to ensure the instrument continues to work the same over time. Additionally, you have to take into account where you have data and where you don't. In the case of climate science, you want to take into account the fact we have lots of data from the land surfaces, but not the oceans. These are just a few of the issues with data. The NOAA scientists have discovered when you take all of this into account the 'hiatus' disappears. Surface warming has continued at the rate of about two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit per decade (about .1 degree C per decade) since the 1950s. Take a look:
It is encouraging the source for the perceived slowdown has been determined - it apparently never happened. However, we need to keep in mind this is the first report and it has to be validated by other scientists. Strangely enough, the paid fossil fuel shills are the first to provide validation of these results. Who, but the most-biased new organization of all, Fox News, would be in a rush to report that the results are being questioned by "climate scientists." Just take a look at who they quote as questioning these results - Roy Spencer, Judith Curry, John Christy - all former scientists that have rejected science in favor of taking money from the fossil fuel industry. Some of these people have been caught falsifying data on multiple occasions and producing fraudulent results that had to be retracted.
So, how does this qualify as validating the results? Very simple. It will take real scientists months to years to examine this paper and attempt to duplicate the results. All of these former scientists rushed out and criticized the results after a mere week. But, there is no possible way for them to have determined if the results are valid or not. The only explanation for their rushed criticisms is that the denier lobby is concerned with this paper. And, if they are concerned, that indicates the results are very persuasive.This is a true indicator the results are valid.
You have to wonder, why are the deniers in such a rush to try and discredit the paper? Probably because they know it proves their denier claims are not valid. So, they have no choice but to rush to the attack, even though it is not possible for them to have examined the results.
Now, as has been widely reported, scientists at NOAA have examined the historical data and have determined the so-called hiatus never occurred.Their paper, appearing in the journal Science, states "There is no discernible ... decrease in the rate of warming between the second half of the 20th century and the first 15 years of the 21st century."
The problem has been biases in the data.You don't just collect data from some instrument and run with it. You have to calibrate an instrument to determine exactly what it is measuring. Then the data must be examined to ensure the instrument continues to work the same over time. Additionally, you have to take into account where you have data and where you don't. In the case of climate science, you want to take into account the fact we have lots of data from the land surfaces, but not the oceans. These are just a few of the issues with data. The NOAA scientists have discovered when you take all of this into account the 'hiatus' disappears. Surface warming has continued at the rate of about two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit per decade (about .1 degree C per decade) since the 1950s. Take a look:
 |
| Source: NOAA |
So, how does this qualify as validating the results? Very simple. It will take real scientists months to years to examine this paper and attempt to duplicate the results. All of these former scientists rushed out and criticized the results after a mere week. But, there is no possible way for them to have determined if the results are valid or not. The only explanation for their rushed criticisms is that the denier lobby is concerned with this paper. And, if they are concerned, that indicates the results are very persuasive.This is a true indicator the results are valid.
You have to wonder, why are the deniers in such a rush to try and discredit the paper? Probably because they know it proves their denier claims are not valid. So, they have no choice but to rush to the attack, even though it is not possible for them to have examined the results.
Monday, June 1, 2015
Exxon CEO Toes Party Line
The CEO of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson, might as well have used the 'I'm not a scientist, but...' line at the shareholders meeting last week. When challenged about climate change, he stated,
That wasn't enough, though. He also mocked renewable energy and said the company intentionally does not invest in renewables, stating, “We choose not to lose money on purpose.”
But, it gets even worse. His comments also included this jewel:
“What if everything we do, it turns out our models are lousy, and we don’t get the effects we predict?” Tillerson said. “Mankind has this enormous capacity to deal with adversity, and those solutions will present themselves as those challenges become clear.”This is really unfortunate, especially considering the hope attached with some developments with Exxon. It turns out, it was just a ruse. Exxon is still a denier organization and there are indications it still provides funds to denier organizations, using entities such as Donor Trust to funnel funds with orders to undermine climate science.
That wasn't enough, though. He also mocked renewable energy and said the company intentionally does not invest in renewables, stating, “We choose not to lose money on purpose.”
But, it gets even worse. His comments also included this jewel:
“Mankind has this enormous capacity to deal with adversity. Those solutions will present themselves as the realities become clear,” he said. “I know that is a very unsatisfying answer for a lot of people, but it’s an answer that a scientist and an engineer would give you.”
Monday, May 25, 2015
The Great "Warming Pause" Lie Revealed
One of the greatest lies (and there are lots of them) the denier lobbyists make is how there has been no warming for [insert your time period of choice] years. Here is an example of one of these lies:
Why is this a lie? For the very simple reason any data base, unless it is perfectly vertical, will have periods where the average is constant (zero slope) for some period of time. All you have to do is pick your period of time and your end points. Of course, that is exactly what Anthony Watts and Christopher Monckton have done and this topic has already been discussed. The interesting thing is how they have to keep changing their endpoints to make their lie seem plausible. Take a look:
Their time period here is from August 1996 to March 2014. Now compare:
Their endpoints are now October 1996 to December 2014! What's up with that? And, compare that to the first plot above with the time period of September 1996 to September 2014. Lie exposed! They are cherry picking their endpoints to get the desired result - something you can get out of ANY database. Allowing for the possibility the non-existant 'pause' could continue, the right endpoint would change. But, if their claim was real, there would be no need to EVER change the starting point. The ONLY reason you would ever need to change the starting point is because it doesn't work out the way you want. If they continued to use the same starting point, they would not be able to get a constant average.
That makes their plots lies.
Furthermore, the claim there has been no warming is simply not true. First, the surface data clearly shows a warming trend. I addressed that topic here. Also, the record of increasingly hot years keeps getting longer and it is statistically impossible to explain this record as being random.
They are liars. We already knew that, so this isn't really news. But, the interesting thing is how they have actually PROVEN GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL! Yes, you read that correctly. Take a look at this plot made by cunudiun (click on the image for a larger version):
What he did here was to take a larger time period and plotted the trend line, meshing the Watts plot in precisely. It is easy to see the Watts plot is actually offset IN THE POSITIVE direction from the trend line. [Note the offset labeled 'surge' in the plot.] And, notice how the trend line is actually closing in with 'no warming' average as you go from left to right.
What this means is they were able to find an flat-line average, which is a simple math exercise, but they could ONLY do it with an average that is GREATER than the trend line. If there were no warming, as they claim, if there was a 'hiatus,' their average line would have dissected the trend line, not been offset. The offset PROVES, without question, the temperature is increasing during their cherry picked period.
Watts and Monckton have succeeded in proving, without doubt, that there has absolutely been warming over the period they indicated.
So, not only is this a huge lie on the part of the deniers, but it is a monumentally stupid one at that. And, anyone that falls for this has to be massively naive.
What's up with that?
 |
| Source: WUWT |
Why is this a lie? For the very simple reason any data base, unless it is perfectly vertical, will have periods where the average is constant (zero slope) for some period of time. All you have to do is pick your period of time and your end points. Of course, that is exactly what Anthony Watts and Christopher Monckton have done and this topic has already been discussed. The interesting thing is how they have to keep changing their endpoints to make their lie seem plausible. Take a look:
 |
| Source: WUWT |
 |
| Source: WUWT |
That makes their plots lies.
Furthermore, the claim there has been no warming is simply not true. First, the surface data clearly shows a warming trend. I addressed that topic here. Also, the record of increasingly hot years keeps getting longer and it is statistically impossible to explain this record as being random.
They are liars. We already knew that, so this isn't really news. But, the interesting thing is how they have actually PROVEN GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL! Yes, you read that correctly. Take a look at this plot made by cunudiun (click on the image for a larger version):
 |
| Source: cunudiun |
What this means is they were able to find an flat-line average, which is a simple math exercise, but they could ONLY do it with an average that is GREATER than the trend line. If there were no warming, as they claim, if there was a 'hiatus,' their average line would have dissected the trend line, not been offset. The offset PROVES, without question, the temperature is increasing during their cherry picked period.
Watts and Monckton have succeeded in proving, without doubt, that there has absolutely been warming over the period they indicated.
So, not only is this a huge lie on the part of the deniers, but it is a monumentally stupid one at that. And, anyone that falls for this has to be massively naive.
What's up with that?
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