Friday, May 15, 2015

Climate Change Deniers Can't Get Science Right

Scripps Institute of Oceanography made a news release with the title, "Research Highlight: Arctic Sea Ice Loss Likely To Be Reversible," followed by the subtitle, "Scenarios of a sea ice tipping point leading to a permanently ice-free Arctic Ocean were based on oversimplified arguments." My first guess is who ever wrote this piece is unfamiliar with the ways of the climate change deniers. Give them any in to reject the science and they'll take it. And, they did. For instance, the article in The Daily Caller (a trash journal which is famous for its scientific illiteracy) which leads with the headline, "'Irreversible’ Arctic Ice Loss Seems To Be Reversing Itself" and concludes with this gem:
In fact, Arctic sea ice extent as a whole seems to be stabilizing despite this year’s record low maximum in February. NSIDC data shows Arctic sea ice extent is currently within the normal range based on the 1981 to 2010 average extent.

“Global sea ice is at a record high, another key indicator that something is working in the opposite direction of what was predicted,” Dr. Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Forum, told the U.K. Express in January.

“Most people think the poles are melting… they’re not,” he said. “This is a huge inconvenience that reality is now catching up with climate alarmists, who were predicting that the poles would be melting fairly soon.”
How's this for an inconvenience, Dr. Peiser?:

Source: NSIDC

Tell us again how the sea ice is at a "record high"? And, would you care to discuss how Antarctica's land ice loss went from 30 gigatons per year to 147 gigatons per year in just one decade? Not to mention the disaster going on with the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Oh, and just what credentials does Peisner have to qualify him on such a subject? He has none. Peiser studied political science, English, and sports science at the University of Frankfurt. He is a past Senior Lecturer in Social Anthropology & Sport Sociology at Liverpool John Moores University. He is a “historian and anthropologist with particular research interest in neo-catastrophism and its implications for human and societal evolution.” The Daily Caller's credibility in science is so low they had to get a political science major to discuss the issue of arctic ice loss. Truly amazing!

Well, people like this are being called out. It won't make any difference to the deniers because they have firmly decided to reject science, but maybe someone that is interested in learning will hear. Here is a nice article about the Scripps news release, explaining what Scripps was really saying.

Now, I am not going to give the deniers the benefit of the doubt. I am not going to say this was just the case of someone misunderstanding the scientific paper because the news release clearly stated,
During the past several years, scientists using global climate models (GCMs) that are more complex than process models found sea ice loss in response to rising greenhouse gases in their computer simulations is actually reversible when greenhouse levels are reduced.

Read it again, sea ice loss is reversible "when greenhouse levels are reduced."

And, further,
“We found that two key physical processes, which were often overlooked in previous process models, were actually essential for accurately describing whether sea ice loss is reversible,” said Eisenman, a professor of climate dynamics at Scripps Oceanography. “One relates to how heat moves from the tropics to the poles and the other is associated with the seasonal cycle. None of the relevant previous process modeling studies had included both of these factors, which led them to spuriously identify a tipping point that did not correspond to the real world.”

“Our results show that the basis for a sea ice tipping point doesn’t hold up when these additional processes are considered,” said Wagner. “In other words, no tipping point is likely to devour what’s left of the Arctic summer sea ice. So if global warming does soon melt all the Arctic sea ice, at least we can expect to get it back if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again.”
Again, the ice will return "if we somehow manage to cool the planet back down again."

This is very different than what the deniers are claiming. And, don't miss the qualifications of the person making this statement: Dr. Eisenman is a professor of climate dynamics at Scripps Oceanography. Okay, this is someone that is qualified to speak on the subject.

Here is a link to their actual paper, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

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