Monday, January 1, 2018

Reality isn't helping climate change deniers

The anti-science climate change deniers have many problems. One of them is the fact that there is no science to support their claims. Another is the fact that reality doesn’t conform to what they claim - no matter how much they wish otherwise.

An example of the latter is a bet a climate scientist made with a couple of solar physicists in 2005.  British climate change modeler James Annan invited climate change deniers to put their money where their mouths are. Not surprisingly, he had difficulty finding any takers. In other words, the anti-science people didn’t have faith in their own claims. He finally found a couple of takers in Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev and entered a bet with them for $10,000 that that the six years between 2012 and 2017 would be warmer than the six years between 1998 and 2003. The official numbers aren’t out yet, but the data indicates Annan has won the bet.  The solar physicists claimed that global warming is due to solar activity and not CO2concentrations. Since solar activity is declining, they reasoned the planet would be cooling over time. Too bad for them they didn’t study their physics better. While it is true the solar activity is declining (and a fatal flaw in the reasoning of people who claim warming is due to solar activity), the decline has been small and is dwarfed by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Not to worry, though. They’ve had twelve years to save-up the money.

An interesting thing about this bet is that a well-known British denier, Piers Corbyn, claimed he would like to enter a bet like that. But, when Annan offered the bet to him, he merely claimed he never received the email. Of course, once he was told about it, he could easily have contacted Annan if he really was that confidant of his claims, but didn’t.

Of course, Marc Morano also failed to take a similar bet from Bill Nye. Richard Lindzen, the disgraced climate denier who was once a professor at MIT, agreed to the bet with Annan, but wanted 50-1 odds. He would collect $10,000 if he won, but would only have to pay $200 if he lost. Once again, it’s interesting these guys go around making claims, but don’t have enough faith to take a wager. I wonder why Lindzen didn't offer the odds in reverse since he claims he is so sure of himself. No, actually, I don't wonder at all.

But, there are those who have taken the wager. The results? Every single climate change denier who has taken a bet has lost.

All of them.

In fact, there are so many failed predictions by the deniers that Dana Nuccitelli wrote an entire book about them: Climatology vs.Pseudoscience. They don't have a very good track record on their claims. But, that really isn't surprising.

It’s interesting how reality simply isn’t helping the deniers with their claims. But, that’s the difference between being anti-science and accepting the science – reality doesn’t care which one you do.

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