There Was No 'Pause' in Global Warming

Remember how Christopher Monckton, the Great Lord Denier of anti-science, claimed there was no warming for (insert period of time of your choice)? Read about his claims here, here, and here.

Take a look at the plot of temperature anomalies and tell me there was no warming:

Source: NOAA

Case closed.

Yes, Mr. Monckton, Warming Continues

I see it's time for Christopher Monckton, the Great Lord Denier, to come out with another of his ridiculous claims that there has been no warming for xx number of years (time span to be determined). That's because NOAA released the September Global Analysis today showing this last September to be the hottest September ever recorded. It also had the highest departure from average ever recorded for any month. That was the fifth consecutive hottest month in a row. January through September 2015 is the hottest such period ever recorded.

Tell us, Mr. Monckton, if there has been no warming, why do the months keep getting hotter?

So far, 2015 has seven hottest months ever recorded, one second hottest month, and one third hottest month, not to mention the hottest of all 1629 measured months (July).

For the last 12 months, the tally is:

August 2015 was the hottest August ever recorded;

July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;

June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;

May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;

April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;

March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;

February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;

January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;

December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;

November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;

October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;


Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one 2nd hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.

Fact Checking Monckton's Claims

As I said before, Christopher Monckton has decided to attack me in the press. I did a posting showing how little credibility he has (i.e., none at all). His response was to threaten me with a libel lawsuit unless I withdrew the posting an made a public apology (not going to happen). Now let's address the particulars of his claims and do our fact checking of the deceptive Lord Denier.

Monckton states, “Keating says coal is the chief source of sulfur and nitrogen compounds, radioactive particles and soot in the air and arsenic in the water. He does not say that modern coal-fired power stations produce negligible quantities of these trace pollutants. Nor does he say that coal, the cheapest source of reliable, base-load power, has done more to lift Man from poverty, disease and death than anything else. A true scientist weighs both sides.”

This paragraph is a completely false argument. Monckton is claiming it is okay to pollute air, water, and land because the amount of pollution today is less than it used to be. So what? They made progress, but coal-fired plants are still enormous sources of pollution in the world today. This is particularly bad considering there are energy sources that are so much cleaner and even more affordable. His claim that coal has done more to “lift Man” is totally false. It isn’t coal that lifted civilization, it’s energy. The source is irrelevant. If we can replace coal with a cleaner source it would improve the world even more. Then, factor in these alternative sources are even cheaper and the deal gets even better. Monckton's claim is like claiming someone should be excused for murder because they are also a philanthropist. And, considering the number of dead resulting from the pollution of coal-fired power plants, the analogy is apt. As Monckton said, weigh both sides.

He goes on to say, “The true reason for the campaign against coal-owners is that they were once among the biggest supporters of the Republican party. Keating claims, however, that coal is damaging the climate by emitting carbon dioxide, but is careful not to put that claim into scientific perspective. Despite almost a third of a millennium of industry, to the nearest tenth of one per cent there is no CO2 in the air at all. Therefore, mainstream climate science leads us to expect just 0.5 C° global warming by 2100.”

Again, all false arguments, one of the deniers favorite tools. The interesting thing about his first statement is that the coal industry and coal workers have been long-time supporters of the Democratic Party and many Democratic politicians. Hmmm. And, I wonder if Monckton would be willing to drink a glass of water with the same percentage of cyanide poison in it. I'm betting not. (Please don't try that at home - it will kill you.) The amount isn't as important as what it does. Even a small percentage of your body weight in alcohol will make you drunk. By the way, if you get arrested for drunk driving, try telling the arresting officer that, to the nearest tenth of a percent of your body weight, there is no alcohol in your system and see what happens. (Note: .08% blood alcohol is less than .004% of your body weight, or less than current levels of carbon dioxide in the air.)

As for putting the CO₂ emissions into scientific perspective, let’s do that. The amount of CO₂ in the air today is the greatest it has been in over 800,000 years and is causing significant change to the climate. His claim of 0.5 C^o warming is already proven false. We have already experienced .81 Co of warming compared to the 20^th century average. Mainstream climate science is saying we have already passed the point where we can limit the warming to 2 C^o. More likely, we will experience over 3 C^o. If Monckton would know this if he were the expert he claims to be. That indicates he is either lying about the warming or about his expertise. Take your pick. I chose to believe he’s lying about both.

One of Monckton’s continued lies is that there has been no warming for xxx years (insert the time span of your choice). He stated in his editorial “the least-squares linear-regression trends on the UAH and RSS satellite records show no global warming for 18 years 5 months and 18 years 7 months respectively.” I have covered this in depth. The irony is when you examine his claim it actually shows the warming continued. See my postings on this:

WUWT? and Monckton Caught Lying

The Great "Warming Pause" Lie Revealed

He continues with the statement, “According to the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index compiled by Dr Ryan Maue at Florida State University, the combined frequency, intensity and duration of all hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons has been at or close to a satellite-era low for five years.” Pretty specific. Let’s check it out.

In fact, Dr. Maue states, “Therefore, it is expected that there will be a large variation in the total ACE from year to year. This will make it difficult to make definitive conclusions about trends.” This site here states, “There is no evidence of a systematic increasing or decreasing trend in ACE for the years 1970-2012.” Hmmm. It doesn’t look good for Monckton.

Next up. “In fact, the linear trend on the tornado series, too, has been downward in recent years. As with typhoons, so with tornadoes, Keating cherry-picks by taking individual years or regions rather than doing what real climate scientists do: calculating least-squares trends on global data.” Again, we see the typical false argument. Monckton wants to cherry pick ‘recent years’ and ignore the total data base. I cited the years of high activity to highlight his cherry picking. He purposefully selected the years that would support his claims while ignoring the rest of the data. If his claims are true, how does he explain the data he skipped? In fact, recent studies have shown the total number of tornadoes remains about the same from year to year, but a recent study has shown a possible change in the pattern of formation. While the total number remains roughly the same, they are occurring on fewer days and arriving in larger clusters.

There is a curious thing about these claims by Monckton and others. Monckton claims there are changes in the tropical cyclones (record lows) and tornadoes (record lows) and then claims there is no change in the climate. What? Did I read that correctly? His proof the climate isn’t changing is that the climate is changing. Does he even bother to read his own claims?

Then, he goes into land ice. I’ve covered this in depth with these posts:

Meanwhile, In Greenland

But, What About Antarctica?

Clearly, the evidence shows Monckton was deceptive in his statements.

One more false argument, “95% of land-based ice is in Antarctica and Greenland, which show minuscule percentage declines in ice volume.” He reveals himself with this statement. He admits the land ice is decreasing, proving his claims of no warming to be false. The only way the ice can be melting is if the climate is warming. At the same time, he reveals his methods of deceit. No one is claiming the amount of annual melting in Antarctica and Greenland is a large percentage. Fortunately, it is a small percentage of the total or we would be inundated. The problem is the amount of melting is not only large enough to drown the coastal areas (and already is), but the rate is accelerating.
As for his claim of the Himalayas, that is only partly true and is a totally false argument. Warming ice melts only when its temperature gets above freezing. Ice that warms from twenty below zero to ten below is warming, but won’t melt. The high levels of the Himalayas, though warming, are still below freezing. However, the lower levels are retreating. This is a very deceptive claim on his part. But, as we have seen, this is par for Monckton.

He can’t let it go with all of that deceit, he has to throw in one more. “The overwhelming majority of the authorities in the peer-reviewed journals of economics conclude that, even at the exaggerated warming rates predicted by the failed computer models of climate, it is many times costlier to attempt to prevent global warming today than to let it happen.”

Every study I have read has shown the cost of climate change is much higher than doing nothing. Take a look here, here ("The most expensive thing we can do is nothing."), and here. And, if it is more expensive to address the problem, why is the insurance industry encouraging governments worldwide to address it? In other words, Monckton is lying one more time.

But, as we have seen, we already knew that.

The Lord Denier Threatens Libel Suit

Christopher Monckton has taken umbrage with my posting on him. I received a letter from him (copied below) saying I must remove the posting and post an apology or he will file a libel suit. He has my permission to file his claim in an American court.

Here is his letter:

Mr Christopher Keating

DOGW.email@gmail.com

Sir,

Libel

Lord Monckton’s attention has been drawn to a blog posting (of which a copy is annexed hereto), with you as the purported author, which was downloaded this day from http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.co.uk/.

The posting falsely alleges that Lord Monckton is “lying” et separatim telling “outright lies” et separatim a “flagrant liar” et separatim “a liar of the highest order” et separatim a “well-known liar” who “makes up” facts; falsely alleges that His Lordship has made postings at your website under a pseudonym; falsely alleges that His Lordship has published several “personal attacks” on you; falsely describes His Lordship’s assertion that he was an Expert Reviewer for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report as “misleading” when the Report lists him as such; falsely alleges that His Lordship is no more expert on climate than the man in the street; falsely alleges not only in the text but also in the headline that His Lordship is a “denier”, implying pejoratively and repellently a connection with Holocaust denial; falsely alleges that His Lordship’s monthly temperature report is “lying” in that it indicates that there has been no global warming for almost two decades and thereby, so you say, conceals what you assert to be the fact that global warming is continuing; falsely alleges that His Lordship is “a deceiver” et separatim “deceptive” et separatim guilty of “deceptions”; and falsely alleges that His Lordship’s intention is to furnish “evidence that climate change isn’t real”.

These characteristically malevolent and baseless allegations constitute singly and by mutual reinforcement a grave and wilful libel of His Lordship, who by these presents reserves all his rights and pleas in law and may without further notice take such steps as may be necessary to protect his reputation, including without limitation the lodgement of libel proceedings at the Court of Session, unless within seven days the offending material shall have been removed and replaced with an unreserved apology, retraction and undertaking of non-repetition in terms acceptable to His Lordship.

This letter, which is confidential, is neither to be published nor founded upon in any proceedings to follow hereupon save with His Lordship’s prior consent in writing, which is at present withheld.

Yours faithfully,

James Rowlatt

Clerk to His Lordship

Christopher Monckton: Lord Denier

Christopher Monckton is one of the most flagrant of liars and deceivers in the denialist lobby. It is with great interest that I see I have become one of his targets. He has posted several editorials attacking me personally and it appears he has been trolling this blog as FallacySwat (since blacklisted). As is common with him, he employs outright lies, deceptions and false arguments. This is the common thread in nearly everything he does.

As an example, Monckton begins his editorial by calling me "the lavishly taxpayer-funded Christopher Keating" while referring to the paid shills Tom Harris and Tim Ball as "my scarcely-funded friends." Unless Monckton is referring to my military retirement benefits, I don't receive any funds from the taxpayers at all. But, how would Monckton know that? And, that is precisely the point - he doesn't. And, more to the point, he doesn't care. Monckton doesn't just cherry pick his facts, he makes up what he can't find. 

For instance, he claims he was an "expert reviewer" for the latest IPCC report. The truth is, Monckton registered on a webpage open to everyone. There was no appointment and he was not an 'expert' anymore than the next person walking down the street. So, why did he say that? To mislead the reader into believing he is something he isn't - credible. And that is the key part of his strategy because his deceptions only work if you think he's credible. But, he isn't.

I could go on all day long about how deceptive this man is. But, I don't need to because it has already been done. Check out these links on our good Lord Denier:

Monckton Bunkum Part 1 - Global cooling and melting ice 

Monckton Bunkum Part 2 - Sensitivity 

Monckton Bunkum Part 3 - Correlations and Himalayan glaciers 

Monckton Bunkum Part 4 -- Quotes and misquotes

Monckton bunkum Part 5 -- What, MORE errors, my lord? 

Here is another one: Lord Monckton's Rap Sheet.

And, what do real climate scientists say about Monckton's claims? See what the scientists at RealClimate say here and here.

And, see what DeSmogBlog has to say here and here.

 

Monckton is also the originator of the claim there has been no warming for xxx (pick the number of your choice) years. I have covered this claim and the interesting thing is, when you examine his claim closely, it actually proves warming has been continuing. Monckton is lying every time he claims there has been no warming. You can see the details here and here.

The gist of all of this is Christopher Monckton is a liar of the highest order.

As for the 'scarcely funded' Tom Harris and Tim Ball, they are hardly even close to that.

I've discussed Tom Harris several times. Take a look at these postings for more information on him:

1100 Dead Proves Tom Harris is Wrong 

Tom Harris - Paid Shill

Tom Harris Lies About the Temperature Record

More Scientists Comment on Tom Harris' Deception

The basic line is that Tom Harris is a long-time paid lobbyist of the fossil fuel industry with strong links to the tobacco industry. 

And, what about his buddy, Tim Ball? He has declared he has worked as aclimate scientist for 35 years. But, he hasn't. The truth is, Tim Ball is a geographer and spent 8 years in the geography department at  the University of Winnipeg. Take a look at this video to see more about Tim Ball. The comedy starts about the 7:50 mark. You can read about his long history of links to the fossil fuel industry here, including the Friends of Science.

So, what we have is a well known liar defending two well know paid shills. And, somehow, this is supposed to be evidence that climate change isn't real.
 

 

 

Hottest May Ever

The National Climatic Data Center released its State of the Climate report for May this morning:

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2015 was the highest for May in the 136-year period of record, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.08°C (0.14°F). This ties with February 1998 as the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20^th century average for their respective months.

The first five months of 2015 were the warmest such period ever recorded. Both the land and the ocean temperatures set records.

What was that about there has been no warming? It looks like Monckton will have to redo is plot - once again. 

Our monthly grim count looks like this:


May was the hottest May on record;

April was tied for the fourth hottest April on record;

March was the hottest March on record;

February was the second hottest February on record;

January was the second hottest January on record.

So far, 2015 has two hottest months, two second hottest months, and one fourth hottest month ever recorded.


For the last 12 months, the tally is:

May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;

April 2015 was tied for the fourth hottest April ever recorded;

March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;

February 2015 was the second hottest February ever recorded;

January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;

December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;

November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;

October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;

September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;

August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;

July 2014 was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;

June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded.




So, let's see what the score is for the last 12 months: one 7th hottest month, two 4th hottest months, two 2nd hottest months and seven hottest months ever.